The Twelve Days of Box Office
By David Mumpower
December 29, 2010
Before we get started with today's discussion, I wanted to address a couple of questions that have cropped up. They're actually ones that crop up every year when we do these columns. So, don't feel bad for asking. The first is why some of the numbers in the box office charts at this time of year are exact down to the dollar while others are clearly rounded estimates. The answer is simple. You know how almost everyone you know takes the holiday period off from work? Studios are no different in this regard. That means that while some of them are diligent in their efforts to give exact tallies during the December holiday season, others are kind enough to allow their numbers crunchers to take a vacation.
The other question of the moment is why the per-venue averages are so low during what is supposedly the most lucrative box office period on the calendar. You should probably be able to figure out the answer to this one on your own. Whenever we discuss the per-venue averages in John Hamann's weekend wrap-ups, we are evaluating a three day total. All that happens is that the Friday, Saturday and Sunday per-venue averages are added together to give a collective total. Ergo, you are looking at three days worth of per-venue averages at once. Given that knowledge, you should now realize that while the $2,200 per-venue average of Little Fockers, the best in the top 10 yesterday, looks woeful, you are only looking at part of the picture. If we add in Monday's $2,380 and last Thursday's $2,010, the picture changes dramatically. The last three weekdays of Little Fockers comprise a per-venue average of $6,590, an amount only 25% behind its weekend per-venue average of $8,720. Any time you evaluate the daily box office of a title, you should keep this in mind. Just multiply the daily per-venue by three to place it into perspective. You will have more experience comparing the numbers in this manner.
With regards to the Tuesday box office, let's take this opportunity to return to last week's Tron: Legacy discussion. I had made the point that the natural calendar comparison for this season's visual wonder was the underachieving Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, the number one film entering Christmas week of 2004. I also noted that the final box office multiplier (final domestic box office divided by opening weekend box office) for that film, 3.94, wasn't good enough for Tron: Legacy. It needs to hit 4.55 in order to reach $200 million. In other words, Tron: Legacy needs to not only match but also surpass the holiday box office pace of that movie by about 15%.
How is Tron: Legacy doing? Weeeeeeeeell. Lemony Snicket's Christmas week box office total of $29.35 million represents an almost identical total to its opening weekend total of $30.06 million. Including its Monday/Tuesday total of $10.58 million for the week after Christmas, its first nine days after opening weekend were an improvement of 32.8%. Tron: Legacy earned $43.34 million during Christmas week after an opening weekend of $44.03 million. That hold of 98.4% from opening weekend to Christmas week is slightly better than Lemony Snicket's 97.6%. When we include Monday and yesterday's box office, the overall improvement over these nine days is 27.3%. Tron: Legacy was beating Lemony Snicket's pace after seven days but fell back on Monday and Tuesday of this week. The key is that Lemony Snicket increased from $8.64 million on Monday and Tuesday of Christmas to the afore-mentioned $10.58 million the following week. Tron: Legacy, on the other hand, was basically a draw on comparable Mondays, earning $12.35 million during Christmas week then $12.68 Monday and yesterday.
I recognize that there is a lot of math involved a bit, something I've tried to dial down a bit this year relative to previous years. If your eyes glazed over and you got bored, I'll summarize this way. Tron: Legacy is slipping. It had been on a pace that would have brought it close to $200 million. Its most recent two days of box office indicate either a brief setback or, more likely, flagging consumer support. While it did surpass $100 million yesterday, its momentum has been lost. As of right now, I have a hard time finding a scenario wherein Tron: Legacy reaches $200 million, which means that its domestic box office total will be written off as disappointing to some. International box office will determine its true fate.
On the off chance you are wondering about Yogi Bear, which has the same release pattern as the two films mentioned above, here is the data. I'm quite sure you'll be surprised. After a modest $16.41 million opening weekend, Yogi Bear earned $20.37 million during Christmas week. That's an increase of 24.1% before we even factor in Monday and Tuesday results. With $7.15 million combined on Monday and Tuesday, in and of itself an improvement of 30.5% from last Monday and Tuesday's $5.48 million, Yogi Bear has a nine day post-opening total of $27.52 million. That's a spike of 67.7%. Yes, the numbers are of a smaller scale, so the percentage improvement is easier to manage. Still, a movie that looked like a dud after opening weekend is going to be over $60 million by the start of next week. This is an excellent demonstration of the power of holiday box office inflation.
|
|
Rank |
Film |
Studio |
Gross ($) |
Venues |
Per-Venue |
Percentage Decline |
Domestic Total ($) |
|
1
|
Little Fockers
|
Universal
|
7,779,200
|
3,536
|
$2,200
|
-7.6
|
61,278,680
|
|
2
|
Tron: Legacy
|
Walt Disney
|
6,348,449
|
3,451
|
$1,840
|
+0.2
|
100,055,593
|
|
3
|
True Grit
|
Paramount
|
6,150,000
|
3,047
|
$2,018
|
-14.3
|
50,142,000
|
|
4
|
Yogi Bear
|
Warner Bros.
|
4,500,000
|
3,515
|
$1,280
|
+70.1
|
43,930,000
|
|
5
|
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
|
Fox
|
3,706,472
|
3,350
|
$1,106
|
+6.4
|
69,788,642
|
|
6
|
Tangled
|
Walt Disney
|
3,626,074
|
2,582
|
$1,404
|
+12.0
|
150,559,830
|
|
7
|
Gulliver's Travels
|
Fox
|
2,932,250
|
2,546
|
$1,152
|
+9.0
|
11,930,524
|
|
8
|
Black Swan
|
Fox Searchlight
|
2,492,650
|
1,466
|
$1,700
|
+1.7
|
33,632,766
|
|
9
|
The Fighter
|
Paramount
|
2,240,000
|
2,511
|
$892
|
-7.9
|
32,246,000
|
|
10
|
The Tourist
|
Sony
|
1,770,000
|
2,756
|
$642
|
+1.1
|
44,440,000
|
|
|
|
|
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