Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

December 4, 2010

Honey, I don't want to alarm you, but we're being attacked by giant marshmallows.

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Every Thanksgiving, we have the traditions of eating turkey, giving thanks, and watching the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys play football. There's a tradition that occurs the weekend after Thanksgiving, as well - one wherein absolutely no one goes to the movie theater, and movies that performed amazingly over the holiday plummet back to reality. 2010 is no different.

The Warrior's Way

Occasionally, a studio will be brave enough to toss out a new release during the weekend after Thanksgiving, usually with the knowledge that whatever movie they throw in theaters is a lamb to the slaughter. Relativity Media decided that this odd-looking mishmash, directed by the awesomely named Sngmoo Lee, would be the unfortunate beast for 2010. It's a crazy-looking movie (and appeals to me quite a bit, incidentally), but North American audiences weren't feeling it. The fantasy-adventure, which oddly co-stars the likes of Geoffrey Rush and Kate Bosworth, earned only $1.1 million on Friday. It's going to be a pretty pathetic weekend for the film overall, and it's not even going to approach its steep $40 million budget. Give it an even $3 million for the weekend before it fades into obscurity.





Notable Holdovers

History tells us that returning movies always have humongous drop-offs during the weekend after Thanksgiving, and this week will be absolutely no exception. After all, with people having Friday off and then making the entire weekend one big celebration, there's plenty of time for movie-viewing. It's not the case on that next Friday, and since families are no longer gathering and/or trying to escape for a little while, box office returns fall precipitously.

Tangled is the first victim of a huge drop, but it should still be our winner of the weekend. It fell a whopping 73% from last Friday, but it should see some small amount of rebounding on Saturday and Sunday. Its $5.1 million Friday should translate to around $21 million, still a solid number, particularly as it's going to have the rest of the holiday season to rake in some cash.

That means that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (whew) has fallen behind the Disney animated tale, as it took in $4.8 million on Friday, a decline of 77%. Harry's still doing all right, though, as the film passed the $230 million mark yesterday. Its weekend total should come in around $19 million.

The other, lesser holdovers from last weekend include Burlesque, Love and Other Drugs and Faster. Burlesque fell fell 56% to $2 million, Love and Other Drugs dropped 50% to $1.9 million and Faster lost 59% as it took in $1.2 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Tangled 21.0
2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 19.2
3 Burlesque 6.6
4 Unstoppable 6.5
5 Love and Other Drugs 6.0
6 Megamind 4.6
7 Due Date 4.0
8 Faster 3.6
9 The Warrior's Way 3.0
10 The Next Three Days 2.5

     


 
 

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