Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 20, 2010

We hate you too, Damon Lindelof.

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Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

First, a little rehashing of some numbers. As Reagen pointed out in the forecast, this is the first Harry Potter movie since Goblet of Fire in 2005 to have a three-day release weekend (and also open in November, as opposed to July). It earned $102 million, the best weekend of any of the films to this point. 2009's Half-Blood Prince earned the best single day total at $58.1 million, counting midnight sneaks.

The Friday box office for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 is an insane $61.2 million, with $24 million of that attributed to midnight showings. So there's your new single day record holder for the franchise, and it's also the fifth biggest single day of all time.

As always, the $24 million from midnight showings is removed from the multiplier calculation, so the number that we play with to determine its weekend is $37.2 million.




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Goblet of Fire earned a quaint $40.1 million on opening day, though the amount of that from midnight showings is unavailable, but it makes for a mostly lousy weekend comparison anyway since the demand for instant gratification in consumers has only increased since then, as evidenced by the midnight and first day totals from something like New Moon (released a year ago this weekend). What should happen with Deathly Hallows Part 1, however, is that Saturday, able to benefit from a full day of showings, should beat the Friday figure with midnight showings removed (something New Moon didn't do) followed by a 30% decline or so on Sunday. A Saturday take of $40.1 million is something entirely attainable for Deathly Hallows Part 1, followed by $28.6 million or so on Sunday. Add it all up, and that's a weekend of $129.9 million, just ahead of Iron Man 2 for fifth place all time.

The Next Three Days

Providing "competition" we have the Russell Crowe vehicle The Next Three Days, which flops kinda hard with $2.2 million and only places fifth on Friday. The Next Three Days won't do much better over the next two days (see what I did there?) so look for a weekend of $6.1 million.

Notable Holdovers

Unstoppable drops 49% from last Friday to $4 million. That it was under 50% ever so slightly is a good thing. Give it $12.3 million this weekend

In the face of Harry Potter, Megamind drops 53% from last Friday (when it only fell 37% from its opening weekend) to $3.7 million. It rebounds over the rest of the weekend, so look for a third weekend of $13.7 million.

And finally, Skyline is hilariously off 78% from last Friday to $1 million. If it weren't for Harry Potter, I would have led with this. Call it $2.7 million for the weekend, probably.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 129.9
2 Megamind 13.7
3 Unstoppable 12.3
4 Due Date 8.0
5 The Next Three Days 6.1
6 Morning Glory 4.7
7 Skyline 2.7
8 Red 2.2
9 For Colored Girls 2.1
10 Fair Game 1.2

     


 
 

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