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Weekend Forecast for October 1-3, 2010

By Reagen Sulewski

October 1, 2010

See? It says right there that eating darts is bad for your health.

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Unknown Kodi Smit-McPhee takes over the role of the lonely picked on kid, while Chloe Moretz (Kick-Ass's Hit Girl) steps in as the positively creepy little blood-sucker who seems just as eager to find a friend, or perhaps a servant. It's perhaps a bit of a cliché to say “Twilight this is not”, but then it really isn't – there's no ridiculous teen drama, no laughable sparkly vampires and no pulling of punches (also, no Vampire Baseball!). Vampires in Let Me In are blood-suckers in both literal and metaphorical ways, leaving waves of physical and emotional destruction in their path.

Amazingly well reviewed for a remake of a foreign horror film, it still has to fight against the relative anonymity of its actors. Then again, that's not always impossible in this genre, and the film looks suitably atmospheric and chilling enough for the uninitiated that it should be able to earn the low teens figures that most lower-budget horror films can manage these days. Look for around $11 million, or about what the original made in its entire first run.

Lastly we have Case 39. The film centers around Renee Zellweger as a children's services worker who rescues a young girl from her seemingly psychotic foster parents, who had locked her in their basement and had designs on “sending her to hell”. However, after bringing her home to live with her home, Zellweger starts to realize that those crazies might have been on to something, as strange and disturbing things start to happen around her – like swarms of bees coming out of her boyfriend (in the film and in real life) Bradley Cooper. The film then becomes a struggle to keep the girl from destroying all those around her that are trying to save her.

Case 39 comes to us several months after premiering in Europe, which is really never a great sign, and it didn't fare all that well over there. Promotion seems to be minimal-to-none for it here, though you'd think Paramount would at least take a few swings with two big-name actors to work with. One gets the sense of cutting of losses, and I expect a tiny total of around $7 million for its debut.




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That brings us to our returning films, starting with Wall Street 2. While a $19 million opening doesn't seem like much, you have to remember that this is a film that literally no one was asking for. That Oliver Stone was able to convince people that talking about finance again, even to this degree, was interesting is a modest coup. I feel little urgency in people telling each other about this film, and with The Social Network stealing its spotlight, it should fall to around $11 million this weekend.

Legend of the Guardians remains the sole family film of note out there, and that might help it hold on to a significant portion of its $16 million opening, but we're still talking about a 3D film shot like 300 with owls. It should slip to around $10 million for its second frame.

There's a strong likelihood then that The Town will slip past both these films, though we now have what you might call a glut of films that appeal to viewers over the age of 25. Ben Affleck's ascent to directorial stardom has earned a little over $50 million at this point, and with decent legs has a better than average shot at $100 million total. If, as a crime thriller, it can distinguish itself from the rest of the pack of films this weekend, it should be able to hold its own at $11 million.

Lastly of note, Easy A held up reasonably well for a teen comedy, dropping just 40%. Emma Stone's winning performance in this smart comedy about sexual politics should be able to push this to around $60 million total, with about $6 million this weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of October 1-3, 2010
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Social Network 2,771 New 27.5
2 Let Me In 2,020 New 11.5
3 The Town 2,935 +50 11.3
4 Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps 3,597 +22 11.0
5 Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 3,575 0 9.8
6 Case 39 2,211 New 7.4
7 Easy A 2,974 +118 6.2
8 You Again 2,548 0 4.6
9 Devil 2,400 -411 3.6
10 Alpha and Omega 2,303 -322 2.7

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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