Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 19, 2010

What are those toys doing?!?

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Toy Story 3

The long-awaited Pixar sequel opened to an phenomenal $41 million on Friday. In this era of huge numbers that we're becoming desensitized to, this is absolutely remarkable because Toy Story 3 has flat out annihilated the best single day for a Pixar movie. The best opening day had been 2008's WALL-E with $23.1 million. The biggest single day had been the second day of The Incredibles, $29.5 million in 2004. Pixar films just don't do this. They've been remarkably consistent $60-70 million openers over the last ten years, with the only outlier being Ratatouille.

Toy Story 3 is a mortal lock to open over $100 million, with Shrek the Third's record for opening weekend by an animated film in serious jeopardy. Shrek the Third had a $38.4 million Friday and a 3.09 weekend multiplier on its way to a $121.6 million weekend in May 2007. Toy Story 3 would need a 2.88 to beat that figure. Last year's Pixar release, Up, managed a 3.17. The larger numbers make a higher weekend multiplier tougher to accomplish, but in the era of 3D, anything is possible. Toy Story 3 should come in with a weekend of $124.2 million.


Jonah Hex

And now, your front runner for biggest flop of the summer, D-level comic adaptation Jonah Hex earned $1.9 million on Friday. It's lucky that it's completely overshadowed by Toy Story 3 this weekend; otherwise it'd be one of the larger punching bags of the year. Give it a weekend of $5.5 million.

Notable Holdovers

After a $55 million opening, The Karate Kid falls 53% from last Friday to $8.9 million. It's still in line for a solid second weekend, but the drop off is rather high, perhaps being undercut by Toy Story 3 as the most obvious pick for kids and families. Give it $27.6 million for a second weekend.

The A-Team falls 56% from its first Friday to $4.3 million, which is more in line with the genre for that kind of decline than The Karate Kid. It's a solid disappointment now and any hopes for $100 million are pretty much out the window. The A-Team looks to earn $12.5 million for the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Toy Story 3 127.9
2 The Karate Kid 27.6
3 The A-Team 12.5
4 Get Him to the Greek 6.0
5 Shrek Forever After 5.6
6 Jonah Hex 5.5
7 Killers 4.9
8 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 4.8
9 Sex and the City 2 2.6
10 Iron Man 2 2.3



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