Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 15, 2010

We're way too old for this time period!

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Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott make a film that we're not entirely sure was necessary, given that the tale of Robin Hood is still fondly recalled in a classic film of the '90s. We speak, of course, of Robin Hood: Men In Tights.

Robin Hood

Russell Crowe's Robin Hood earned $13.1 million on Friday, a number that seems like an okay start, until we remember that it was revealed this week that its negative cost was $237 million. This is going to be another example of mediocre domestic box office being made up for by worldwide receipts.

It's hard to believe it's been ten years since Gladiator, the film considered to be Crowe's breakout role (and also directed by Ridley Scott). That opened to $34.8 million and was considered a big success. How a decade changes things. While at this point Robin Hood feels like it's neck and neck with Iron Man 2 for the weekend title, the gap should widen a little bit when the weekend estimates are in. Give Robin Hood a weekend of $38 million.


Letters to Juliet

The latest five-hanky weeper starring Amanda Seyfried opened to just $4.9 million on Friday. This is quite a bit off from February's Dear John, which started with $13.7 million on its way to a weekend of $30.4 million. Seems like the Nicholas Sparks connection might be worth more than initially thought. Letters to Juliet should end up with a weekend of $14.2 million.

Just Wright

Queen Latifah's romantic comedy is a relative disappointment with just $2.8 million on Friday, but thanks to all the dead wood in the lower rungs of the top ten, it's in fourth place for the weekend. I don't really have anything else to add here, so give it a weekend of $8.4 million.

Iron Man 2

After last week's tremendous opening, Iron Man 2 falls a somewhat predictible 65% from last Friday to $15.4 million. Iron Man's second weekend found it falling about 50% from its $102 million opening. The Friday to Friday drop was 61%, so it's textbook sequel-itis, though not to such a severe degree. Iron Man 2 will increase the gap between itself and Robin Hood over the remainder of the weekend, especially on Saturday. A weekend of about $50 million will put it well past the $200 million mark by the end of the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Iron Man 2 49.9
2 Robin Hood 38.0
3 Letters to Juliet 14.2
4 Just Wright 8.4
5 How to Train Your Dragon 5.2
6 A Nightmare on Elm Street 4.1
7 Date Night 4.1
8 The Back-Up Plan 2.6
9 Furry Vengeance 2.5
10 Clash of the Titans 1.1



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