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Weekend Forecast for April 30 - May 2, 2010

By David Mumpower

April 30, 2010

Just like nails on...a plumbing pipe.

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Instead, we are talking about the cinematic equivalent of New Coke, New Coke being the theater beverage of choice the last time Nightmare on Elm Street was popular as a franchise. And don’t think for a second that I am joking on this point. Remember that Dokken was popular the last time these movies were a significant box office factor. Dream Warriors (sorry for the earworm) and The Dream Master, the third and fourth movies in the franchise, both earned over $40 million domestically in 1987/1988. The disingenuously named The Final Nightmare, released in 1991, managed only $34.9 million and by the time the franchise started anew with New Nightmare in 1994, the thrill was gone. Only $18.1 million worth of consumers were willing to give it a shot. Two years later, Wes Craven leveled up with Scream and the world of cinema was so much the better for it as Freddy Krueger masks were stuck in the attic, making only the one return in the next 15 years and only then to combat frenemy Jason Voorhees.

Freddy Krueger hasn’t terrorized the residents of Springwood, Ohio (feel free to stump your friends with this bit of trivia this weekend) for far too long. Fast forward to this weekend and the denizens of Elm Street are going to suffer then die, much to the thrill of teen audiences across North America, some of whom were conceived while their parents listened to Dokken (how is that for scary?). I am of the opinion that Nightmare on Elm Street is the most pedigreed horror franchise because it was not run into the ground the way that Friday the 13th has been…and I say that as someone who got a kick out of the franchise’s ugly step-child, Jason X. I am expecting a similar opening weekend to Friday the 13th’s $40.6 million, but Nightmare on Elm Street will have significantly better legs. Let’s say a $37.5 million start is in the offing and a Dokken comeback is probably not too far behind. If I am only right about one of these, please let it be the former and not the latter.




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There is one other major new release this weekend, the amusingly titled Furry Vengeance. Coincidentally, this is exactly what I shout each and every time I penetrate a woman. That tidbit alone is more noteworthy than anything involving this, the latest Brendan Fraser attempt to buddy up to MILFs. His is a good dating plan, but I think we all agree that Furry Vengeance is much more of an Inkheart ($7.6 million opening, $17.3 million domestic revenue) than a Journey to the Center of the Earth ($21.0 million opening, $101.7 million domestic revenue). In fact, the only worthwhile thing Furry Vengeance gives us is a wonderful battlecry on Xbox Live. I’m expecting box office of around $9 million, but it is the best film title since Ninja Assassin.

Apropros of nothing, our friends at ERC sent out a release schedule last year that included an incorrect notation that Richard Curtis would be the director for Nightmare on Elm Street. I say this not to tweak them as their service is reliable and well worth the money if you have ever considered using it. Instead, I want to point out that some of us here at BOP have absolutely fallen in love with the idea of the director of Love Actually and writer of Blackadder doing a slasher film. If you know Richard Curtis, please ask him to make this happen. He could even change the soundtrack lyrics to Death Is All Around Us and have Freddy Krueger dress up as Billy Mack as he sings it to a victim. Yes, I’ve thought about this too much.


Forecast: Weekend of April 30 - May 2, 2010
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 A Nightmare on Elm Street 3,332 New 37.5
2 How to Train Your Dragon 3,426 -239 12.3
3 Furry Vengeance 2,997 New 9.0
4 Date Night 3,093 -201 6.8
5 The Back-Up Plan 3,280 0 6.6
6 Clash of the Titans 2,737 -534 5.4
7 Oceans 1,210 +4 5.3
8 The Losers 2,936 0 5.1
9 Kick-Ass 2,542 -523 5.0
10 Death at a Funeral 2,271 -188 4.6

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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