One Month Out
May 2010 (Part II)
By BOP Staff
April 14, 2010
Coming in 2012: Shrek 5 - Why Won't You Die?Kim Hollis: The fourth and allegedly final Shrek film (yeah, right) opens on May 21st. Where do you expect this one to fall among the top summer contenders and in comparison to previous Shrek films?
Josh Spiegel: I would guess, if only because the film has a built-in recognition, it'll do somewhere around $100 million (as its two predecessors surpassed that number). However, unless it's incredible, I don't see it having the legs of the first two Shrek films. Obviously, 3-D theaters will help boost the box office, but I don't think there's the same pent-up interest and demand for this as there would be for Toy Story 3. It'll do well for those first four weeks, but then, it's done.
David Mumpower: Nothing makes me believe in evil ruling our world more than the notion that the worst performing Shrek film would be the third most popular Pixar film and the most popular Shrek film has the Pixar library beaten by over $100 million. The good news is that the world seemed to awaken from an extended bout of mass hypnosis in 2007 and realize that Shrek the Third was horrible. Yes, they should have noticed that with Shrek 2 three years before, but I digress. The point is that the brand may have been damaged by the waning quality of the franchise. Alternately, that was just a blip on the road with DreamWorks Animation recognizing that the best way to reinvigorate the franchise is to pretend that Shrek is going away. By forcing consumers to quickly move past their frustration over the third title through threats and fear, Shrek Forever After has less stink of failure on it than should be the case.
I do not believe it will do as well as the third film under that same premise I mentioned for Iron Man wherein the quality of the prior film directly correlates to the box office of its successor. I do, however, expect this to be the third consecutive Shrek film to open north of $100 million, a full $30 million beyond anything Pixar has managed to date. Which is sad. Shrek Forever After should make around $300 million and could do another $75 million more if public opinion is again positive. Dear naive consumers: please stop falling for this.
Max Braden: I don't think it's all naive consumers. Kids love the green ogre. But we're almost a decade into the series, so at this point the first wave of kids has started to outgrow it, and the newest wave of kids may not have been hooked so hard on it. So the series is in decline. But to be honest, WALL-E and Up were nice movie experiences but they were more adorable than hilarious. And Monsters vs Aliens and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs felt like they were going through the motions. If I get the sense that Shrek 4 is where I have to go for animated comedy, so be it.
Jason Lee: My opinion on this could totally be naive given that I have A) no kids and B) no desire to have kids, but I really believe that the shine has come off of the Shrek brand. I think it's a little old and a little dated, and despite its rapid use of pop-culture funs, I don't think people have as much fun with Shrek as before (though the ratings for the Christmas special were strong). I see this opening below $100 million and I see it falling short of $300 million.
Kim Hollis: Sure, it's a little old and moldy, but Shrek is a very comfortable movie franchise for families. They know exactly what they're going to get, and the prospect of seeing these silly characters in 3D makes it a little more enticing. I actually think it does about as well as the third film, but that's partly due to ticket inflation and 3D pricing. I will say that even though I don't love the Shrek films particularly well, I do think they're fun enough and that's probably the general consensus of most family movie-goers (caveat: I have never seen Shrek the Third, which is kind of a big deal when you consider that I see almost every animated film).
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