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Cue the Black Sabbath

Kim Hollis: Iron Man 2, one of the heaviest hitters of the summer movie season opens on May 7th. What would you consider to be a good result for the Tony Stark sequel?

Tom Houseman: Buzz is growing on the Internet of Iron Man 2 taking out The Dark Knight for biggest opening weekend of all time. Not a chance. Iron Man as a character doesn't have the built-in fanbase as Batman or Spiderman, and Iron Man 2 doesn't have anything like Ledger's death going for it. What would Dark Knight have earned without the boost of Ledger? $130 million? I think that's a fair number for Iron Man 2. Robert Downey Jr. is huge right now. I'm not sure how much of a wave Mickey Rourke is still riding from The Wrestler. I could see this movie getting as high as $140 million and as low as $120 million so, I think splitting the difference sounds about right.

Josh Spiegel: I would agree that Iron Man 2 is probably not going to hit the highs of The Dark Knight's opening weekend, but it'd be nice if this movie toppled the record New Moon got back in November. I'm guessing the movie will get somewhere near $125 million in its first three days and, on the chance that it's as well-received as the first film, could get awful close to $400 million overall.

Michael Lynderey: Yes, I would most assuredly and unreservedly agree that Iron Man doesn't have the massive fanbase and name recognition of Batman/The Dark Knight. The problem with that fact is that it did not prevent Iron Man #1 from opening with that staggering $102.1 million, a number that I would have expected from the sequel, not the original. Therefore, I have no choice but to throw my hands up in the air and surrender to the idea that Iron Man 2 will open with a number solidly over $160 million, especially since the first film was so beloved, and this sequel has thus far made no mistakes. Would I be disappointed if Iron Man 2 didn't beat out Dark Knight? Should the studio be? Definitely not, to both questions. But the possibility that it will trounce the Batman is getting to be more and more like a certainty every day.



David Mumpower: The key aspect to consider in determining whether Iron Man 2 has a chance to usurp The Dark Knight's opening weekend record is a behavioral pattern that exists independent of either film. The rapid increase in movie ticket pricing for event features exhibited in 3D/IMAX is one that aided The Dark Knight a bit at the time but nowhere near as much as Iron Man 2 will be boosted now. Anecdotally, the cost for me to see Iron Man 2 in its highest quality will be $4.25 more than it was for The Dark Knight just two years ago. That's a 35% increase.

Does that reflect pricing on all tickets sold for Iron Man 2? Of course not. It does, however, reflect a cinema trend that cannot be ignored in estimates for all major 2010 summer releases, particularly Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3, the perceived heavyweights. As such, Iron Man 2 doesn't have to sell as many tickets to get to the same level of opening weekend performance that The Dark Knight did, which equalizes the playing field at least somewhat from Tom's well taken point that Heath Ledger's situation created a unique level of awareness for that title.

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