Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 13, 2010

You just know that the panda is behind all the Lost shenanigans.

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Green Zone

Starring Matt Damon and directed by Paul Greengrass, the duo responsible for the success of the second and third Bourne movies, Green Zone does not even approach the level of those films as it earns $5 million on Friday. While The Hurt Locker walking away with a mess of Oscars last week perhaps showed signs of people warming up to Iraq-themed movies, that clearly didn't translate into any success for Green Zone. I'm not that excited about its prospects over the rest of the weekend, so call it a weekend of $14 million.

Remember Me

Team Edward did not show up in force to help the box office for Remember Me, though it is second among the four openers this weekend with $3.5 million. While it still wasn't much, there's a good chance this was its best day of earnings. Look for a $9.1 million weekend.




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She's Out of My League

The story about a 5 and a 10 was probably hoping to earn somewhere between one of those numbers on Friday, but alas, it gets a 3.3 (million). The romantic comedy should be neck and neck with Remember Me for third place on the weekend with $9.2 million.

Our Family Wedding

While Our Family Wedding is fourth among the opening films with $2.5 million and is destined for a quick trip out of theaters, I guess we should note that it's got the smallest screen count in the top ten. So it's got that going for it, which is nice. Give it $7 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

After last weekend's absolutely shocking $116 million weekend, Alice in Wonderland falls back to earth quite a bit, off 58% from last Friday to $17.2 million. It will still lead the weekend with ease, but this shows that the 3D gimmick doesn't guarantee legs, especially if word-of-mouth is mixed. Despite the Oscars (a notorious weekend multiplier killer), it still managed a 2.84, and that should actually improve this weekend, enough to put it over $200 million after ten days in theaters. A second weekend of $57.5 million should be in store here.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Alice in Wonderland 57.5
2 Green Zone 14.0
3 She's Out of My League 9.2
4 Remember Me 9.1
5 Shutter Island 7.8
6 Avatar 7.5
7 Our Family Wedding 7.0
8 Brooklyn's Finest 4.1
9 Cop Out 3.9
10 The Crazies 3.3

     


 
 

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