Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 13, 2010

You'd think this was from The Wolfman, but it's actually just 2 more cast members of Valentine's

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Valentine's Day

The obvious big winner of the weekend is Valentine's Day, starring half of Hollywood. Opening to $14.3 million, the romantic comedy was the date movie of choice for the weekend and will also have a really strong remainder of the weekend, even with Valentine's Day (the holiday) falling on Sunday. This is one of the bigger moviegoing holidays, so Valentine's Day is poised for a pretty big weekend. Going back to 2004, Adam Sander's 50 First Dates opened on this weekend when Valentine's Day fell on a Saturday. It had a 3.8 multiplier after a $10.5 million Friday. Impressive. Add in that some people are off from work on Monday and the multiplier for Valentine's Day (the movie) will be quite solid. Passion of the Christ's February record is safe but a weekend of $52.9 million is just outstanding.

The Wolfman

Coming in stronger than expected, The Wolfman earned $9.6 million on Friday. In the vein of The Book of Eli and Legion (both already long gone from the top ten), we'll see a strong opening weekend and then a quick departure out of theaters. The holiday will prevent prop up the weekend multiplier a notch or two, so give it a weekend of $26.8 million.


Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief

Yet another children's literature adaptation that I had never heard of prior to this weekend, Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief has a strong start at $9.5 million. No word on how much the actual Olympics affected Percy Jackson's opening day. It wasn't affected by Valentine's Day but I always like 2007's Bridge to Terabithia as an example of how children's literature adaptations have great weekend multipliers, even in February. That started with $6.3 million but had an opening weekend of $22.5 million. Something similar should await Percy Jackson on this weekend. Give it a weekend total of $33.8 million, a solid figure.

Notable Holdovers

After taking down Avatar last weekend, Dear John plunges 70% to $4.1 million in the face of lighter fare such as Valentine's Day (the movie). The only saving grace here for it is that Valentine's Day (the holiday) should rise all films, and especially something like this. Look for a second weekend of $13.1 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Valentine's Day 52.9
2 Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief 33.8
3 The Wolfman 26.8
4 Avatar 18.1
5 Dear John 13.1
6 The Tooth Fairy 5.2
7 From Paris With Love 3.6
8 Edge of Darkness 3.1
9 Crazy Heart 3.0
10 When in Rome 2.5



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