Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 6, 2010

RDJ couldn't do it. Mel couldn't do it. Travolta? Nope. Channing Tatum/Amanda Seyfried? Yes!

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Dear John

Quite possibly the least likely film to end Avatar's run at the top of the box office, Dear John earned $13.8 million on Friday, more than double Avatar's take (more on that in a moment). The Channing Tatum/Amanda Seyfried film is benefiting from being the first film targeted squarely at females in months. While it's virtually a given that Avatar's streak at #1 ends at seven, wackier things have happened as this is Super Bowl weekend. Sunday business is generally quite low and this will very likely contribute to a below average weekend multiplier for Dear John.

Even still, Dear John has such a head start over Avatar this weekend that for Dear John to not finish on top, it would have to have a sub-2.0 multiplier while Avatar would need to well over a 4. Dear John's multiplier won't be that bad, but it will be below average. It should come in with a weekend of $33.1 million.



After passing Titanic to be the #1 film of all time in North America and earning nine Oscar nominations, Avatar is unceremoniously dumped from the top spot by a five hanky weeper. Neither bit of news had any effect on its Friday box office, as it earned $6.2 million on Friday, down 16% from last week which is right in line with the Friday to Friday declines it's had over the last month. It's been pulling in some ridiculous weekend multipliers over the same time period (including last week's 4.20) but the Super Bowl will hurt its Sunday so it will have to settle for a mere 3.4 or so, giving it another $21.1 million as we now try to see if it has enough steam left to hit $700 million.

From Paris With Love

The John Travolta film is hoping to duplicate the success of last year's Taken, but only manages $3 million on Friday (compared to the $9.4 million start of Taken). Things won't improve much over the remainder of the weekend. Call it $6.9 million.

Notable Holdovers

The Edge of Darkness and When in Rome further stretch the definition of notable as they fall 60% and 54% respectively.

The only beneficiary of the Oscar nominations is an expanding Crazy Heart, which has a Best Actor Golden Globe and now Academy Award nomination for its star Jeff Bridges. Moving to nearly 900 theaters, it earned $1.1 million on Friday. Look for a weekend of $3 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Dear John 33.1
2 Avatar 21.1
3 From Paris With Love 6.9
4 Edge of Darkness 6.4
5 Tooth Fairy 6.3
6 When in Rome 5.3
7 The Book of Eli 4.8
8 Crazy Heart 3.0
9 Legion 3.0
10 Sherlock Holmes 2.5



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