Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

December 14, 2009

Let's play keep away from Cooper!

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Shalimar Sahota: They should enjoy being on top while it lasts, since positive reviews for an animated film is no guarantee here anymore, especially after seeing the stop frame animated Fantastic Mr Fox dwindle. It'd be good to see strong legs over the next few weeks, but competition from Avatar is likely to hurt it plenty and, as horrible as it sounds, I wouldn't be too surprised if Alvin & the Chipmunks 2 made more money than this.

Tom Macy: If I were Disney I'd be cautiously optimistic. I know I am. The Christmas through New Year's period - where films like Marley & Me and Alvin and the Chipmunks made a killing - is tailor made for family entertainment. Throw in the positive reviews and the nostalgia of old school Disney - which I think the marketing has done a brilliant job of capturing while not exploiting - and we could be looking at a solid $125 million earner. But maybe I'm deluding myself. I just want this film to succeed more than I have any other in a while. Perhaps that will change when I see it, though.

Kevin Chen: I doubt that John Lasseter is feeling any disappointment, given that he was one of the primary forces responsible for insuring that The Princess and the Frog was able to see the light of day. I'm sure it's recognized internally that there is a lot of brand rebuilding to be done after the erosion of their traditional animated studios, particularly since the capitulation to CG technology continued to ignore the weakness of the underlying writing elements. While The Princess and the Frog cleaves strongly to the modern Disney formula, it feels a lot closer to the Disney Renaissance than the films which marked the end of the 2D studio, and as such should be read as baby's first step, not an Olympic sprint.




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Reagen Sulewski: That's definitely the important thing to remember here, is that they've let people get out of the habit of viewing these films as an annual event. While they're not starting from as deep a hole as they were before the Disney Renaissance, consider that The Little Mermaid opened to just $6 million and earned $84 million, not blockbuster numbers even by the standards of that time (20 years ago now!). Thanks to Christmas business, The Princess and the Frog could conceivably get into the $150 million or more area.

Sean Collier: I think many of us wouldn't have been surprised if Disney never made another 2D film. Considering that the Mouse House is essentially reviving a form, here, and one that hasn't been truly big business for them since the early part of this decade, the result is fine. Christmas will push it into something resembling profitability, most likely, and as Max pointed out, the real money here comes when Princess whatshername takes a place in line alongside Jasmine and Belle et al in the endless line of merchandise. Nothing wrong for Disney here.

George Rose: For publicity's sake, they should pretend to be thrilled. In all reality, they might be, especially considering how long it's been since the last time they did a musical in this medium. However, I'm not part of the Disney marketing machine and won't sugar coat this. Given how unappealing the story and setting of the film are, this is more than I expected it to make, so in that regard I congratulate the movie. On the other hand, this is a Disney animated musical, and as far as its predecessors are concerned, this is bad. Real bad. If the novelty of the long awaited return to this traditional form can only muster $25 million on opening weekend, that doesn't speak well to future projects in the works. Fine, okay, it seems to have worked to moderate extent for this one movie on this one holiday season, but this should by no means trigger a slew of new 2D musical in the near future.


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