One Month Out: Part Two

By BOP Staff

November 4, 2009

Is Gollum out there?

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Also, he's like all skinny and stuff now!

Kim Hollis: Rather than do something mainstream like Halo or continuing the Lord of the Rings franchise with The Hobbit, Jackson chose to do something more somber and bittersweet with an adaptation of the popular novel The Lovely Bones. What are your expectations for this film with regards to box office, quality and awards contention?

Josh Spiegel: My guess is that everyone involved should be focusing solely on the latter two elements, quality and awards potential. If The Lovely Bones had been released a few years ago, back when the book was still massively popular, the box office numbers could have gone pretty high. It's been a while, though, since the book hit the big-time, so mass appeal may have cooled a bit. If Lovely Bones brings out the same Peter Jackson as, say, Heavenly Creatures, Paramount could get some big nominations (and frankly, because of its prestige and Paramount's already-known choice to keep this film in 2009 awards contention, the movie's probably going to get a Best Picture nod unless it's truly awful). For its box office, though, Lovely Bones may get respectable numbers (somewhere around a total of $100-125 million), but I'd be surprised if it dominates the holiday box office in the same way as movies like Alvin and the Chipmunks or Marley and Me have.




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Kim Hollis: I think it's interesting that you mention Heavenly Creatures, Josh, because that's the previous Jackson film this reminds me most of. It looks similarly otherworldly and ethereal while being grounded in a story that is based in the real-world rather than the Shire or Skull Island. Yes, it's able to have some intriguing and engaging effects because the lead character is in some form of heaven, but that's not the basis for the entire film. I do think this has a strong chance to be one of the leading award contenders of the year and with December legs, financial prospects are solid, particularly with good reviews and word-of-mouth.

Max Braden: I don't know anything about the source material, but from the trailer I get a mixed vibe of Mystic River, The Sixth Sense, Nicholas Sparks, Dead Like Me, Touched by An Angel... Peter Jackson's name will certainly be a boost to both the box office and award prospects. I would expect around $100 million total gross and a top contender for Best Picture Oscar.

Brett Beach: The Lovely Bones. My marketing tactic: I think Peter Jackson should go on a video blog and make an appeal to everyone of his worldwide fans who has seen The Lord of the Rings trilogy more than twice to go see The Lovely Bones the weekend it opens in their city. Just to completely mess with everyone's ability to predict how it will do. I started the book once and was not able to get through it. I think it's a fascinating premise that may work better (for me) as a film than it did as a novel. The cast is impeccable (Tucci as a killer!) and the production design will probably give us one of the most spectacular "heavens" ever. I put it in my top 10 for the fall films I am most excited about. But all this is tempered with the fact that I did not did not did not like King Kong. And Peter Jackson lost a lot of luster for me because of it. It will be the second most nominated film of the year at the Oscars (after Nine, because of the latter's very nominate-able cast and The Weinstein Machine gearing up to come roaring back to life). With awards and buzz and talk, it will clear $125 million before leaving the theaters.


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