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Weekend Forecast for September 11-13, 2009

By Reagen Sulewski

September 11, 2009

She keeps all her most valuable belongings up in there.

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Ads for this look abominable (ha! I slay me! Sleigh me? Okay, I'll stop), full of noisy, random crashes and cop movie clich├ęs. Critics seem to agree, giving it one of the lowest ratings of the year at RottenTomatoes and Metacritic. And while Beckinsale isn't without her hits, they usually come when she's wearing leather and shooting vampires, not bundled in a parka over a corpse. This looks to be pretty forgettable, and should open to about $8 million.

Sorority Row, the fourth wide release this weekend, takes slasher films to their logical conclusion: it's filled with nothing but nubile young women getting murdered. Is there anything else worth saying about this film? Not really. Okay, it is the big screen debut of The Hills cast member Audrina Partridge, but do you honestly, truly care? I didn't think so. While these generic, high-concept horror films can often break out (see: the similar Prom Night last April), that usually happens following an ad blitz and/or clever hook, which this film doesn't have. Someone seems to be under the impression that people enjoy The Hills unironically, and that fake stardom can translate into actual celebrity. Bad news, Audrina. Look for a meager $6 million for this film this weekend.

Of returning films, Inglourious Basterds should be the strongest. Just shy of the $100 million mark, Quentin Tarantino's deconstructive World War II film is close to passing Pulp Fiction as the director's highest grossing movie. It's still showing some rather rapid decline, though, and has proven to be somewhat unsettling for people expecting either an accurate retelling of history, or a violent bloodbath, of which it is neither. Give it $6 million for this weekend.




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Despite repeating as the number one film of the weekend, The Final Destination became something of a one-weekend wonder, dropping over 50% in its second weekend. The 3-D effect, which gave it the best opening weekend of the series by far, proved to be a fickle source of revenue. That said, it'll be the highest grossing of the Final Destination films by Friday (which, you may then conclude, is not that tremendous an honor). It should see about $5 million this weekend.

Also in this vicinity is All About Steve, which squandered all the good will Sandra Bullock earned from The Proposal in one fell swoop. The thoroughly despised romantic comedy opened to just $11 million, and will probably be out of theaters by Thanksgiving. I wouldn't be shocked to see a drop all the way to $4 million.

The remainder of films out there are some long-legged holdovers like District 9 and Julie & Julia, which might see about $4 million each, and some real dregs like Gamer and Halloween II, which are about to disappear from theaters really soon. Really, it's one of the worst starts to September I can recall in terms of quality without involving Steven Seagal.


Forecast: Weekend of September 11-13, 2009
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 I Can Do Bad All By Myself 2,255 New 28.7
2 9 1,661 New 10.8
3 Whiteout 2,745 New 8.6
4 Sorority Row 2,665 New 6.3
5 Inglourious Basterds 3,215 -143 5.9
6 The Final Destination 2,732 -389 5.7
7 All About Steve 2,265 +14 5.2
8 District 9 2,560 -579 4.7
9 Gamer 2,502 0 4.2
10 Julie & Julia 2,342 -186 3.1

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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