Weekend Forecast for August 28-30, 2009

By Reagen Sulewski

August 28, 2009

Oh, that wacky death! It never gives up!

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A third film opens this weekend but feels almost like an afterthought. Taking Woodstock is the story of the guy who owned the permit that allowed the famous 1969 Woodstock concert to take place. Next up, the film about the guy who did the books for the Rolling Stones' Steel Wheels tour and figured out that Keith Richards' drugs could be deducted as a business expense.

Ang Lee (getting into comedy for the first time in ages) directs Demitri Martin as the guy who made sure the concert happened and ... okay, I'm sure this dude had a fascinating story to tell, but – music permits? And does anyone particularly care about Woodstock anymore? Probably not, considering this film is opening on just over 1,300 screens this weekend. I'll be surprised at even $3 million for it.

Inglourious Basterds blew past every expectation last weekend, winning the weekend with $38 million, more than 50% over any of Quentin Tarantino's previous films' debuts. The highly unconventional war film (sold as a splatterfest, but in reality closer to The Third Man) really struck a chord with its combination of comedy and action. Despite any positive word-of-mouth it's received (and it's not universal, but still), it's not a great candidate for legs. Action rarely gets that, and Tarantino has built up enough of a name to inspire some heavy fanboyism. Give this about $15 million for its second weekend.


District 9 dropped the expected 50% from its opening weekend, but the stealthy hit is on a collision course with $100 million plus even still. It's without a doubt one of the big success stories of summer 2009. Look for it to add about $10 million to its total over the next three days.

G.I. Joe proved it had a bit more up its sleeve than people might have thought by virtue of not cratering by its third weekend. It's aiming for something in the neighborhood of a $155 million final total, which is about $60 million more than initial industry estimates. Score one for crass marketing!

Rounding out significant films, Julie & Julia should see about $6 million this weekend, passing The Time Traveler's Wife, which has not proven to capture the popularity of the best-selling book it's based on. It should get about $5 million in its third weekend, and seems headed for a $60 million final total.

Forecast: Weekend of August 28-30, 2009
Number of
Changes in Sites
from Last
Gross ($)
1 The Final Destination 3,121 New 24.3
2 Inglourious Basterds 3,165 0 15.6
3 Halloween II 3,025 New 14.7
4 District 9 3,189 +130 10.4
5 G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra 3,467 -486 6.5
6 Julie & Julia 2,503 -40 6.4
7 The Time Traveler's Wife 2,961 -27 5.2
8 Shorts 3,105 0 3.1
9 G-Force 1,926 -635 2.7
10 Harry Potter and the Half=Blood Prince 1,508 -428 2.4

Continued:       1       2



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