Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 27, 2009

Robot Armageddon is coming! Repent, o ye binary sinners. 1000011010110.

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Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

After a $60 million Wednesday followed by a dip to $28.6 million on Thursday, how would Michael Bay's Transformers sequel do on Friday?

The answer is $36.7 million, a good enough rebound from Thursday as there was always that chance the ridiculous Thursday and the generally lousy word-of-mouth that the action film is getting. The weekend estimate is now taking shape very easily. As David Mumpower covered yesterday, the best comparison for Revenge of the Fallen remains the (former) biggest five-day opener ever, Spider-Man 2. After raking in $64.2 million in its first two days (a figure Transformers now laughs at), Spider-Man 2 performed like a typical release over the weekend proper, since the inital fanboy demand is met with a Wednesday opening. Spidey earned $32.4 million on Friday and a 2.71 weekend multiplier for $88.1 million for the weekend (a five day tally of $152.4 million). July 4th was its first Sunday, but the impact was minimal and may even have been beneficial to that total.

Barring something catastrophic over the remainder of the weekend (which isn't very likely given the 30% uptick from Thursday; a smaller bounce or decline would have been major cause for concern), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen will come in with a weekend of $97 million for a five-day take of $186.2 million.


My Sister's Keeper

Five-hanky weeper My Sister's Keeper comes in fourth on Friday with $5 million in box office. There hasn't been anything quite like this recently so many men will perhaps be dragged to the chick flick likely wishing they could see Transformers instead. As the ultimate in counter-programming, a weekend of about $15 million is pretty darn good.

Notable Holdovers

Last week's big winner, The Proposal, falls a rather high 52% from last weekend to $6.1 million. This is a bit disturbing for a romantic comedy, but it appears to have been kneecapped by the dual threat of the week's two new releases. There should be a little bit of a rebound so the second weekend of the Sandra Bullock/Ryan Reynolds film should earn around $18.2 million.

Meanwhile, Year One takes a ridiculous dive of 76% from last Friday to $2 million. After a better than expected opening weekend, Year One is one and done and leaves The Hangover (still in third off 37% from last Friday as it inches towards $200 million) as the undisputed summer comedy king. Give Year One $5.8 million in its second weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 97.0
2 The Proposal 18.2
3 The Hangover 16.8
4 Up 15.3
5 My Sister's Keeper 15.1
6 Year One 5.8
7 The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 3.7
8 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian 4.0
9 Star Trek 3.9
10 Away We Go 1.7



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