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June 2009 Forecast

By Michael Lynderey

June 5, 2009

She's the fakest Transformer of all.

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May Madness is over, and things slow down somewhat. Traditionally, June shifts the focus away from action films to comedies, and this one's no different, with only two movies containing more than one explosion slotted for release, and an emphasis on star vehicles. This June is going to see comedy after comedy duke it out for the attention of every demographic imaginable. Most of these releases, however, are just trying to get a piece of the action before Transformers comes in and stomps them all away.

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (June 24)

There's not going to be much of a race for the #1 spot in June. Barring a Blart-like surprise, Transformers is poised to absolutely obliterate everything else, and then some. Michael Bay went the safe route here, bringing back most of the players from the first movie - Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox, Josh Duhamel, Tyrese, and even John Turturro

- and keeping the look and feel the same as the first go-around. The off-beat sense of humor is still there, too. Indeed, what may hurt Transformers 2 is the lack of any visible additions to the fray - if there were any cool new robots in the trailer, I didn't see them. It opens on a Wednesday, which is going to put the death knell on any chance this had of breaking the opening weekend record. I'm also somewhat surprised that this wasn't scheduled for the 4th of July weekend (and indeed, that weekend's Ice Age 3 and Public Enemies would seem to be better slotted to the last week of June instead).

Bottom line? Enough people liked the first movie to come back for seconds, and so I'm almost certain that this is going to be the highest grossing movie of the summer.

Opening weekend: $165 million five-day / Total gross: $333 million




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2. The Proposal (June 19th)

The Proposal is this June's wild card, but I think it's going to surprise. It marks the return of Sandra Bullock to what she does best - high-concept romantic comedy, something she's dabbled in for about 15 years now. Indeed, Bullock is the last woman left standing out of all the '90s romantic comedy leads. This film pairs her up with Ryan Reynolds, who had some mild success in Definitely, Maybe last year and has since been doing solid work as a supporting actor, especially in Adventureland. There also look to be funny bits from Mary Steenburgen and the always-welcome Betty White, who at 87 must be one of the oldest actors working today. The direction is by Anne Fletcher, who helmed Step Up and the even bigger hit, 27 Dresses. Aside from those factors, which seem to click with each other, the Proposal's placement so high on this list also stems from my own experiences: having repeatedly seen the trailer in theaters, I've noticed an overwhelmingly positive audience reaction. While I doubt this will be a spectacularly good movie, it has the look and feel of a fun summer romantic comedy, and some of the lines in the trailer made even me laugh. My best guess: this one gets a decent opening and then legs its way up to over $100m.


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