Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 14, 2009

You don't want to mess with the Rock. Or those Children of the Corn kids.

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Race to Witch Mountain

The update of Escape to Witch Mountain, starring The Rock, opened to $6.6 million on Friday. Somehow this number feels a bit disappointing. With the film getting heavy exposure thanks to a Super Bowl ad, awareness had to be fairly high. Still, this is targeted at mostly younger audiences and being pretty much the first family film since Coraline, I expect a better than average weekend multiplier thanks to a strong Saturday. A 3.3 weekend multiplier would give Race to Witch Mountain a weekend of $21.8 million.

The Last House on the Left

The latest horror release checks in with $5.5 million on Friday. I'm rapidly running out of things to say about these horror movies, there have already been so many this year and it's only March. Standard horror rules apply here, so I'll give it $13.8 million for the weekend.


Miss March

Landing in the top ten thanks to a ridiculously soft bottom half of the chart filled with deadwood, Miss March (written by, directed by and starring two guys from the comedy group The Whitest Kids U Know) earned $850,000 Friday. Somehow, this movie actually wishes it was Fired Up. Call it $2.2 million for the weekend.


After last week's solid opening, we have solid confirmation that Watchmen was fanboys only and could not break out to a larger audience as it falls 78% to $5.3 million. It should come in with $15.3 million for the weekend as it now struggles towards $100 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Race to Witch Mountain 21.8
2 Watchmen 15.3
3 The Last House on the Left 13.8
4 Taken 6.3
5 Madea Goes to Jail 5.2
6 Slumdog Millionaire 4.8
7 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 3.1
8 He's Just Not That Into You 2.7
9 Coraline 2.7
10 Miss Match 2.2



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