Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

March 10, 2009

You're thinking of that Saturday morning cartoon Watchmen viral video, aren't you?

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Dr. Manhattan will destroy you if you don't go watch the movie five times.

Kim Hollis: What do you expect Watchmen to do from now until the end of its domestic release?

Brandon Scott: Fall sharply. The second weekend will be telling. It seems reviews were pretty solid overall but that is not going to drive women to the box office. As a way, way early projection, now I think we are looking at $150 or so box office. I thought this thing would break $200 million.

Max Braden: I see probable repeat viewings from serious fans but it's too long for most audiences to see again. Knowing may drain off some box office as well. I expect somewhere around $130 million.

Tim Briody: I think it struggles to $100 million. It won't pull a Jonas Brothers, but look out below next weekend.

Daron Aldridge: As I mentioned earlier, I know of people who consciously waited. I think there could easily be a healthy portion of viewers that will show up next weekend (I hope at least). Overall, my WAG would be for an end result from a 2.55 multiplier (lower than 300's 2.97 but the same as Hellboy - another spring cult comic film) for $141 million.


Pete Kilmer: I think an end total of around $150 million is doable. I'm curious as to how the international market will play to this property.

Craig Hemenway: As mentioned elsewhere, I expect slightly under $150 million domestic for this movie. It should have a poor multiplier even for a comic book/action film. Call it a 2.6 multiplier. Pete raises a great question: How does the international market relate to what is essentially a slice-of-life movie based in an alternate 1980s America? It's all in the international marketing, although I expect the film to do well in Britain simply due to the Moore connection.

Reagen Sulewski: Ultimately, I don't think this knocked the socks off anyone that wasn't already familiar with the material, and it's used up a tremendous amount of its core audience already. I would say somewhere between $100 and $125 million.

Sean Collier: I think Reagan's right with his final guess, though I'd put it on the $125 million side of things. I'd expect next weekend to stay pretty big, but a sharp decline after that. As for the international question, it's hard to say; it'll probably play big in Asia but weak in Europe. I wouldn't expect saving grace from the global markets - that'll come from DVD.

David Mumpower: We are in a day and age where a 2.6 multiplier is what passes for great for a comic book film. Conversely, we've seen with some unusual properties such as Cloverfield and Friday the 13th that a 2.0 or lower final multiplier is possible for the most frontloaded of titles. I strongly suspect that it's going to fall somewhere in the range of 2.0 to 2.2, meaning I'm seeing a best case scenario of just over $120 million. In terms of foreign box office, Watchmen was the number one film abroad with its best performance in England due to the Alan Moore connection as Craig had predicted. Its $27.5 million overseas is nothing Earth-shaking, though. Watchmen appears to be a second tier hit rather than a true blockbuster, and due to the court resolution that forced Warner Bros. to hand over a portion of the gross to Fox, I have trouble envisioning a scenario wherein it exits theaters in the black. Warner Bros. is not getting all of the foreign gates, they're splitting the domestic gates with Legendary Pictures and have to bribe Fox, too. Watchmen probably would have been a profitable endeavor if not for that court case but under the new circumstances, it won't make its money until DVD.

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