Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 21, 2009

I hope there's a file in that apple.

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Tyler Perry and February are two great tastes that taste great together.

Madea Goes to Jail

To nobody's surprise, Tyler Perry's latest play adapted for the screen earned $14.8 million on Friday. It's been four years since Diary Of a Mad Black Woman came out of nowhere with $21.9 million so we should be used to this sort of thing by now. Madea Goes to Jail is the highest first day figure yet among any of his films, proving that audiences just love a cross-dressing African-American man. The last film with Madea in the title was 2006's Madea's Family Reunion, opening to $30 million this weekend back in 2006 off a $10.4 million Friday. Perry's films tend to have stronger Saturdays and then dip a bit on Sunday, and the Academy Awards ceremony will exaggerate this effect to some degree. Still, Perry will now have the new best opening of his career as even a 2.6 weekend multiplier would give Madea Goes to Jail an astounding $38.4 million.

Fired Up

Stupid teen comedy of the week Fired Up is thrown to the wolves with just $2.2 million on Friday. It will be generally unaffected by the Academy Awards but it's a box office non-factor anyway. Give it $6.1 million for the weekend.




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Notable Holdovers

After last week's insane Friday, Friday the 13th falls 86% from last Friday to $2.8 million. Yes, that's ridiculous. Let's say you saw Friday the 13th last Friday in a movie theater that held 100 people. You loved it so much you decided to see it again yesterday. There would now be only 13 other people with you. This is the definition of a one weekend wonder. Give it $7 million for the weekend.

Sure, The International is down 49% but that's not important. Taken holds at #2, off just 27% and will now reach $100 million next weekend, and Coraline is finding an audience, down a mere 10% from last Friday. These are the anti-Friday the 13ths. Good for all involved on both films.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Madea Goes to Jail 38.4
2 Taken 13.2
3 Coraline 10.1
4 He's Just Not That Into You 8.8
5 Confessions of a Shopaholic 7.5
6 Slumdog Millionaire 7.5
7 Friday the 13th 7.1
8 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 6.6
9 Fired Up 6.1
10 The International 4.4

     


 
 

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