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That's still a lot of dough

Kim Hollis: Given that the production budget is relatively modest at $80 million, do you still expect The Day the Earth Stood Still to be profitable?

David Mumpower: The box office results of last December's big three (National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Alvin and the Chipmunks and I Am Legend) were $220.0 million, $217.3 million and $256.4 million. Those titles opened to $44.8 million, $44.3 million and $77.2 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the bomb of the season, The Golden Compass, opened to $25.8 million and finished with $70.1 million. As I mentioned in the wrap, it wound up making $372.2 million worldwide, which puts it ahead of Alvin and the Chipmunks among the quartet, but it didn't hang around a while in terms of domestic performance. So, those are the theoretical boundaries for The Day The Earth Stood Still. It should have a minimum of a 2.7 final multiplier (final box office divided by opening weekend result) with a 5.0 being the best possible scenario. Despite the difference in scale, I believe that I Am Legend is a good barometer for this title's legs. A 3.3 final multiplier would indicate a domestic take of right at $100 million, meaning that even if it falls a bit short of that goal, it's profitable endeavor for Fox. As was the case with X-Files: I Want to Believe, however, the lost revenue in opportunity cost is off the charts.

Joel Corcoran: David indirectly raises an interesting point - what does "profitable" mean in today's box office environment? The film industry has long argued that they are "recession proof", but this current recession is going to strongly test that old cliche. And I think a film's profitability is going to have to be measured more in broader terms to include other sales and rentals, rather than just box office take. For example, I Am Legend on DVD has sold just shy of 6.5 million units just in the U.S. for a take of $112.0 million; and National Treasure: Book of Secrets sold 5.9 million units in the U.S. for a take of $93.7 million. And I'm sure both movies will be just as popular in downloadable and streaming formats (e.g., Netflix's Roku box and TiVo services). As movie fans continue to hunker down in this recession, I think they're going to want to stick with the "staycation" mentality and watch more movies at home, rather than in theaters. The huge, blockbuster, tent pole releases should remain profitable in any context, but I think we're going to see a rapidly increasing trend where a lot of movies barely break even at the box office, or even suffer a mild loss, but still remain highly profitable overall when other types of releases are accounted for.

Brandon Scott: It's certainly arguable how much profit equals success, and all of these things mean something different to different people. If I put money in a stock, it goes up 4% and it cost me 3% to sell it, I will take my 1% as profit, but that doesn't mean I wasn't hoping for more. I think The Day the Earth Stood Still clears $80 million and probably does about $100 million as David suggests, so it might be profitable but still a disappointment for the studio. These are interesting conversations to have but also so objective and open to so many different interpretations, I guess. I know that I will "stand still" rather than going to see The Day The Earth Stood Still, so I won't be helping it out, one way or another...sorry Keanu.





Scott Lumley: This should be long-term profitable, but not short-term. It's going to take a while for this film to recoup the initial investment, and that's money that could have immediately been plowed into different projects. As it stands, this will probably finish out with about $90 to $100 million, and the DVD and aftermarket will make this a slight success. Unfortunate timing and poor marketing really hurt this film.

Max Braden: I agree with David except for the I Am Legend legs comparison. I Am Legend had much more going for it: Will Smith trumps Keanu Reeves, and the word-o-mouth was "That was pretty scary" vs "it's pretty boring" for The Day the Earth Stood Still. Keanu's movie doesn't face much competition as far as genre goes, but I sense the male audiences will be shifting to Yes Man. I don't think The Day the Earth Stood still will bomb like Golden Compass, but I could see a sub-3.0 multiplier. It only needs a 2.58 to meet the budget in theaters, and I'd expect DVD business to be good.

David Mumpower: The I Am Legend legs comparison exists in that I Am Legend's advantages in terms of holdover are neutered by the mathematical complications created by a $77.2 million debut. The larger the opening number, the more difficulty there is in having a solid final multiplier. The corollary applies to The Day The Earth Stood Still. A smaller opening number makes it easier to have a solid final multiplier. These are the same style of film, generally speaking. The differences in scale balance out the rest. Moving forward, I feel quite comfortable with the 2.7 multiplier expectation.

Jason Lee: I also think that The Day The Earth Stood Still benefits from having relatively no competition from an action film stand point. Seven Pounds, Desperaux, Yes Man, Bedtime Stories...I just don't think any of those films truly siphon audience away from someone that was already interested in seeing The Day The Earth Stood Still.

Jamie Ruccio: I agree with everything Joel mentioned regarding profitability. I think we need to redefine the term and its parameters. I don't think it's a temporary shift either that we're talking about due to something even as significant as this economic downturn. I think profitability will be measured in smaller units with all the competition for audience attention. That's why you're seeing ever increased risk-sharing between studios and distribution companies as well as a continued focus to build up the overseas markets.

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