Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 8, 2008

The king of the jungle has a royal wave.

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Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa

By virtue of being both a sequel to a hit animated film and the best family option in months, a second Madagascar film is a big hit for DreamWorks Animation, opening to $17.5 million on Friday. While the first movie opened over Memorial Day weekend back in 2005, this opening night is very near the best day Madagascar had over that entire weekend. Escape 2 Africa should be a very solid performer over the remainder of the weekend, and is looking at a $57 million opening.

Role Models

The experiment of Paul Rudd and Seann William Scott (and that McLovin guy) as box office draws without any Apatow connection whatsoever appears to be a success on opening day, as Role Models aquits itself nicely with a Friday take of $6.6 million. Though ostensibly sharing the same audience as Zack and Miri Make a Porno, Role Models is set to solidly out-perform it. A weekend of $18.3 million looks to be in store for the frat boy comedy.




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Soul Men

Soul Men earned a disappointing $1.8 million on Friday. While not Bernie Mac's final filmed performance, it is certainly disappointing that a film released so soon after his death would flop at the box office. Give Soul Men $5 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

After last weekend's hilarity, the trend continues as High School Musical 3 gains 51% Friday to Friday to earn $2.5 million. We don't expect it to duplicate the 9.1 actual weekend multiplier from last week, however. $8.8 million is a much more likely third weekend for Senior Year, unless it decides to add to its legacy as one of the strangest box office animals of all time.

Also very strange is that Zack and Miri Make a Porno earned $2.2 million on Friday. Attentive readers will note that this is exactly what it earned last weekend, for a Friday-to-Friday decline of, um, zero. Either Halloween also messed up with the target audience for the Kevin Smith film or the word-of-mouth for it is astounding. I can't recall the last time something like this happened without a major venue count increase or holiday weekend being involved. It did also come in with a 4.5 weekend multiplier this weekend, which also won't happen again. Give Zack and Miri $7.9 million in weekend two.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa 57.1
2 Role Models 18.3
3 High School Musical 3 8.8
4 Zack and Miri Make a Porno 7.9
5 Changeling 7.6
6 Soul Men 5.0
7 Saw V 4.0
8 The Haunting of Molly Hartley 3.3
9 The Secret Life of Bees 3.1
10 Eagle Eye 2.6

     


 
 

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