Prophecy: High School Musical 3
By BOP Staff
October 17, 2008
Daron Aldridge: It's funny to me that so many of us are scared that we might lowball a bunch of singing high school students, which in my opinion is essentially Saved by the Bell with songs for this generation. I am not mocking because I am also leery of going out on a limb with this one. I am going to go with an opening of $62 million, which is double the debut of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds. But given the tween and teen appeal here and their history of repeat viewings (hello, Titanic), I think that this one could possibly compete for the number two slot of 2008 releases and surpass Iron Man, which makes me depressed.
Max Braden: I would predict over $50 million because of Miley Cyrus, but I'm going to predict under $50 million because of Miley Cyrus. If that sounds a little loopy, blame the numbers. The Best of Both Worlds concert film earned a staggering $45,560 per site. But that was in part because Disney put out the movie in limited release. And despite the huge opening, they never expanded it. I don't know if Disney learned a lesson there and will go bigger with Senior Year, but I would expect they recognize the niche market and don't go super wide. Plus as Jason pointed out, television ratings don't automatically translate to box office dollars because of the cost parents have to pay getting kids to and into the theaters. I'm going to go with a $45-50 million prediction.
Kim Hollis: Max, I think they will go super wide with this as opposed to following the Miley strategy. Even with that said, I don't think your number is terribly far off. I have to believe that the bloom is off the rose somewhat with regards to the staying power of this thing. Kids have moved on to other shiny things by now, and some of the kids who really loved it when the first two were released are now too old for it to be cool. Even so, it's a very safe option for tweens, and for that reason, I do see about a $50-55 million opening.
Calvin Trager: As I said, my prediction of a $70 million was about as low as I could rationalize, so I obviously think the rest of you are talking crazy between $45 and $62 million. Who is going to go out on a limb and support a nine-figure opening?
Les Winan: I will. Partially because I have no idea what I'm talking about but partially because I think it's possible. $100 million here we come.
Jason Lee: There'll be a lot of bored parents with that $100+ million figure. I hope for their sake that you guys are wrong (though you very well may be right).
Shane Jenkins: This looks to be an "event" film for tween girls, much like Sex and the City was for their moms. That film made $57 million in its opening frame, and, since I expect opening weekend demand for this will be much higher, I anticipate that HSM3 will blow past that total. The $70 million range we're bandying about here sounds about right to me; I predict it will come in at $75 million.