October 2008 Forecast
By David Mumpower
October 2, 2008
1) High School Musical 3
Over 200 million people have watched a High School Musical movie. Whether you want to admit it or not, the odds are decent that you are one of them. I know that I have, which of course makes me weep for the future. I don't want to sound like Abe Simpson or anything, but what is with kids these days? They've got their Hannah Montana and their High School Musical and their downloadable Rock Band content. It's just not right. They should be walking uphill to school every day and warding off pedophiles all the while, like you and I had to do when we were kids. But I digress.
The point here is that High School Musical has one of the largest built-in fan-bases for any movie lacking Star Wars or Harry Potter in the title. The million dollar question, one we'll be debating on BOP in coming days, is whether or not having to pay to see this one will make a difference. Given the fact that kids haven't had any problem spending their allowance on CDs, DVDs, and a slew of HSM merchandise, I'm not seeing the kids' admission ticket price being a stumbling block for a lot of them.
Do not sleep on the potential of this movie. A lot of people are going to toss around the data point that 17.2 million people watched the debut of High School Musical 2 on Disney channel. That total in and of itself would reflect a $100 million opening weekend if each of them showed up for the sequel's theatrical release. The real jaw dropping stat, however, is that 32 million people (discounting repeat viewers) watched High School Musical 2 during its first weekend on Disney. Even if we discount for children's ticket price discounts, that would *still* be about $160 million opening weekend, a total that surpasses The Dark Knight's record-shattering debut.
I don't believe that High School Musical 3: Senior Year will have such a direct translation of fans from the cable debut of High School Musical 2. It will have been over 14 months between films, which is an eternity for kids to find new shiny things. Still, the High School Musical franchise is a cornerstone of the entertainment world of this generation of kids. An opening that surpasses what Sex and the City did, one that approaches The Simpsons Movie, would not surprise me in the least.
2) Max Payne
I'm as surprised by this selection as anyone. A year ago, I would have dismissed this out of hand as the next Hitman, a $13.2 million opener that wound up with around $40 million in domestic box office. Then, the trailers for Max Payne started running. Wow.
So good is the quality of the advertising for Max Payne that I am forced to come up with a new idea for videogame adaptations. I am starting to believe that the quality of the film may be inversely proportional to the success of the videogame franchise. I call it the Super Mario Brothers Scale. The most popular videogame ever looks ridiculous the instant you put Bob Hoskins in overalls and ask him to hop around. Meanwhile, a game even the most diehard of computer players doesn't know well comes out of nowhere with a liquid metal trailer. So very strange. Given the fact that Mark Wahlberg is a moderate box office draw (seven straight $10+ million openings with an average debut of right at $20 million) and the paucity of quality action flicks since The Dark Knight, I think Max Payne can and will surprise at the box office. An opening weekend in the Resident Evil range of $23 million sounds about right.
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