October 2008 Forecast
By Jason Lee
October 3, 2008
While composing my first-ever Monthly Forecast for BOP, I couldn't shake the sneaking suspicion that readers of this piece will come to one of two conclusions: either you will believe me to be an extremely conservative forecaster who refuses to go out on a limb and post anything but moderate BO predictions, or you will assume that I am an elitist film snob for whom the entire month of October holds nothing but inane cinematic scum.
It's actually a little bit of both, actually. While there aren't actually too many October releases that interest me, I am also hard pressed to find more than two or three films that will become break-out successes at the box-office. But try I must, so here is my humble Monthly Forecast for this October.
#1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year
Thirty-three million people can't be wrong. All kidding aside, there isn't a single film in October that has a shot at matching the amount of money that HSM 3 will bring in. Combine a rabid fanbase with the awesome power of the Disney promotional machine and you get a picture that will easily earn a spot as one of the top ten grossing films of 2008.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $62 million
#2. Saw V
For me, this is one of the easier predictions as well. Since the original Saw movie premiered in 2004, the franchise has been extremely consistent in terms of opening weekend box-office with sequels II through IV earning between $31 mil and $33 million in their debut. I anticipate the fifth installment to come in a little below these figures due to the fact that it will be completely overshadowed by the release of HSM 3.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $27 million
#3. Body of Lies
This drama / thriller from Warner Bros. has three things going for it: director Ridley Scott is a box-office draw, Leonardo DiCaprio is a box-office draw and Russell Crowe is a box-office draw. I do not think that this film has the buzz behind it that American Gangster did, as commercials make it seem like more of a generic CIA genre picture, but this trio together will lead it to near certain box-office success.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $26 million
#4. Beverly Hills Chihuahua
Don't ask me why but Disney does great with movies about dogs. There's been Snow Dogs with Cuba Gooding, Jr., The Shaggy Dog with Tim Allen, Bolt coming out this Thanksgiving . . . dogs work for Disney. Though this movie looks incredibly cheesy, its got some decent stars behind the mic voicing the characters and the all-important stamp of approval from the Mouse House. No reason to think this dog-picture won't succeed.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $18.5 million
#5. Max Payne
Video game adaptations are tricky in that they have to appeal both to fans of the game but also stand alone for new viewers. I tend to think that Max Payne will succeed because A) the plot and sequences in the game were already pretty cinematic and B) star Mark Wahlberg had a hit with a similar-looking film, Four Brothers. Plus, the commercials look great.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $17 million
#6. Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist
While star Michael Cera is certainly one of the bigger stars of his generation (thanks to movies like Juno and Superbad), he's no box-office draw (yet). Commercials for this movie seem to be capitalizing on his star power and the wacky story of Nick and Norah's frenetic first date. How effective will this be? While the casting of Cera gives this movie a leg up, I just don't foresee a mad rush to the theatres to see this film.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $14.5 million
#7. Pride & Glory
Edward Norton and Colin Farrell are two A-list actors who can lend acting credibility to a film, though not always a large opening weekend. Though the trailer for this film is effective and the movie will likely be a well-received, this is clearly not a priority title from Warmer Bros. and I anticipate a mediocre opening followed by some stable holds.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $14 million
#8. The Express
Assuming you have a pretty good film, the producer of a football drama can pretty much pencil in an opening between $11 - $20 million – the exact total will depend on the amount of star power and the quality of the story. Here, we have a very compelling story about a moderately well-known athlete in a movie that lacks star power. I predict an opening on the lower end of the scale.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $13.5 million
#9. Quarantine
Blair Witch meets 28 Days Later in the style of Cloverfield. Sony and Screen Gems have launched a viral marketing campaign across MySpace and Facebook to try and build the type of hype that the JJ Abrams monster flick garnered, but this type of movie lives and dies by how good the trailer looks and frankly, I've seen better.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $12 million
#10. The Haunting of Molly Hartley
The only reason this film even makes it into my top ten for October is because it opens on Halloween and I could imagine teens that are too old for trick-or-treating going to see this movie with a date in the hopes of some tepid chills. That alone could propel this film above the $10 mil mark.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $11 million
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