Weekend Forecast for July 25-27, 2008

By Reagen Sulewski

July 25, 2008

When MMORPGs go live and get out of hand.

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Ferrell and Reilly star as overgrown manchildren who are forced under the same roof when their parents get married. Jealous about sharing their parents, they start out with open hostility, but eventually become fast friends based on their love of John Stamos. See, the joke is that they're both in their 40s and act like they're 11! Such hilarity.

Ferrell's actually started to show some signs of weakness, and has never been as bulletproof as Sandler, as Semi-Pro shows. Then again, Step Brothers isn't advertising itself by forcing us to look at Will Ferrell's crotch. A step up, I'd say. Watch for about $26 million this weekend.

Both these films pale in comparison to the second weekend total for The Dark Knight, which after setting just about every opening week record possible, is set to do the same thing for the second weekend. Starting with an astounding $158 million and becoming the all-time debut champ, it's since added two $20 million plus weekdays and holds the eight day record after just six days of release.

These numbers are so gaudy that it's led to speculation that The Dark Knight could challenge Titanic's $600 million mark for all-time domestic box office. That's a bit premature, but it's become more possible than for any other film since 1997. It's going to need a tremendous second weekend to do so, certainly greater than the current record for second weekends of $72 million (set by Shrek 2), but it's quite possible for it to do it, with the rather insane figures that it's been putting up during the week.


Based on these figures, I predict an $86 million second weekend, though I'm girding myself for a huge shock. With the incredible reception it's gotten, including Oscar buzz for not just Heath Ledger, but the picture itself, we can't entirely rule out a second $100 million weekend.

Mamma Mia! was a tremendous success as a counter-programmed film, opening to $27.8 million, for the highest ever opening for a musical (a somewhat hollow achievement, given the recent history of musicals, not to mention that it will be a short-lived one, with the juggernaut of High School Musical 3 on the way). One of the somewhat shocking things about the film was the criticism for incompetence in filmmaking, and singing, which you would think are two pretty basic things. But there I go thinking about ABBA fans having rational assessments of quality. Silly me. Regardless, I don't see this having huge legs or a lot in the way of repeat business. Its second weekend should come in around $16 million, which isn't bad, all things considered.

Superhero/comic films took a huge hit straight on the noggin last weekend, with Hancock falling over 50% and Hellboy II falling over 70%. There are only a few concrete examples of competition rearing its head, and we can now add two more. Expect a bit of bounce back, but the damage has been done. It's $8 million for Hancock and $5 million for Hellboy.

Forecast: Weekend of July 25-27, 2008
Number of
Changes in Sites
from Last
Gross ($)
1 The Dark Knight 4,366 0 86.5
2 The X-Files: I Want to Believe 3,185 New 45.2
3 Step Brothers 3,094 New 25.8
4 Mamma Mia! 2,989 +13 16.4
5 Hancock 3,309 -467 8.8
6 Journey To the Center of the Earth 2,688 -142 7.6
7 Wall-E 3,044 -266 5.9
8 Hellboy II: The Golden Army 3,014 -198 5.6
9 Space Chimps 2,538 +27 5.0
10 Get Smart 1,420 -715 3.2

Continued:       1       2



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