Daily Box Office Analysis for July 9, 2008
by David Mumpower
July 10, 2008
Yesterday, Hancock was given the benefit of the doubt after having the worst percentage drop in the top ten at the box office. Will BOP be as generous after a second consecutive day of such a dubious achievement? Probably not.
That's right, folks. For the eighth consecutive day, Hancock was the number one film at the box office, but for the second consecutive day, it also experienced the steepest drop in the top ten. After falling 12.5% to $7,423,215 on Tuesday, Hancock dropped another 13.6% to $6,412,003 yesterday. The only other title in the top ten to experience even a 10.0% drop was Wanted, a film with mediocre legs to date. Hancock is already down over $2 million from Monday's $8,481,615, meaning it only has 75% of the box office it had just two days ago. Is there a troubling result? The short answer is it's still not awful. Yet.
We used five films for comparison yesterday. For those of you who have forgotten, those titles are Iron Man, Wanted, WALL-E, Transformers and The Incredible Hulk. Not all of them are perfect fits, but there was an explanation about why each one was good enough in yesterday's column if you need a refresher as to why. Out of these titles, here is the germane data about their comparative Wednesdays.
WALL-E fell 11.7% to $6,709,436, 75.3% of its holiday-inflated Monday tally of $8,913,286. Iron Man fell 11.7% to $5,747,344 on its initial Wednesday, a total representing 82.9% of its Monday intake of $6,934,568. Transformers fell 15.2% to $7,003,058 on its comparative Wednesday, roughly 70.5% of its $9,927,640 Monday. The Incredible Hulk's Wednesday drop of 6.2% to $4,503,925 reflects 74.9% of its $6,010,405 Monday. And Wanted's 22.1% Wednesday drop to $3,588,405 is a woeful 56.2% of its holiday-inflated first Monday of $6,381,750.
As you can see from the data above, Hancock's Wednesday total is the fourth largest out of the group. Its percentage holdover relative to Monday results, however, is arguably either second or third best. I am of the opinion that WALL-E's holdover is better since it had the holiday impact working against it, but from a pure numbers perspective, Hancock's Monday-to-Wednesday holdover is better. It's not Iron Man, of course, but that would be indicative of a film with magnificent legs. It's also not Wanted, which means Sony execs may breathe a sigh of relief about its future fate. Hancock appears to be an ordinary performer of its scale thus far. It won't be the leggiest film since Scream by any means, but it's also not going to be a Cloverfield-level flameout, either.
With regards to the rest of the top ten, here are the most interesting stories of the day. WALL-E has surpassed the $140 million mark at $140,400,408. By Saturday afternoon, it should overtake today's number nine entry, Sex and the City, and its $146,098,437 to become one of the five most successful films of 2008. Meanwhile, The Incredible Hulk will slide to eighth place in 2008 at some point today when Hancock passes it. The 2008 update of the iconic Marvel character currently stands at $126,942,060 after 27 days in release. This puts it ever-so-slightly ahead of the 2003 version of The Hulk, which was at $126.14 million after the same time frame. Of course, if we adjust for ticket price inflation, the Ang Lee title is ahead by 17.2%. And it had a cheaper negative cost to boot.
Combined revenue for the top ten yesterday was $18,657,007, down significantly from Tuesday's $20,025,586. Of course, this 6.8% daily drop pales in comparison with the staggering 45.5% fall from last Wednesday's $34,179,567. Or at least it would if we hadn't already discussed last week that this behavior should be expected. After all, Hancock alone was down 63.1% week over week. That's what happens when a film starts with a solid $17,386,366 debut.
||Walt Disney Pictures
||Kung Fu Panda
||Kit Kittredge: An American Girl
||The Incredible Hulk
||Universal Pictures, Marvel Studios
||Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
||Sex and the City
||New Line Cinema
||The Love Guru
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations