Daily Box Office Analysis for July 2, 2008

By David Mumpower

July 3, 2008

He's not a big fan of European automakers.

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The box office analysis for Wednesday, July 2nd is openers-intensive. Two new releases entered the marketplace in the last 36 hours. We discussed Hancock yesterday and will continue to do so today. In case you are wondering, the other title is Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, a movie none of you apparently wanted to see. Well, $1,115,855 worth of you did, which means that 156,942 people found creepy dolls come to life to be a fascinating subject for a movie. It was quite a feat by Picturehouse to get this many people into theaters on a Wednesday. After all, these men all had to take time out from their busy schedules of parole officer meetings and introducing themselves to their neighbors and explaining their crimes to fit in some quality time with Little Miss Sunshine. And some doll owners might be at the theaters as well. There's a nice combination for a shindig...pedophiles and young girls. Is the FBI monitoring these exhibitions? Please say yes. But I digress.

Unlike the doll movie, Hancock did a little better than sixth place. It exploded into first place with a solid $17,386,366. Adding in its receipts from Tuesday evening showings, the film has earned $24,221,400 after roughly 29 hours in release. As far as points of comparison for this performance, there honestly are not any good ones. Transformers had a $29,073,898 Wednesday its first week of release, but this was coming off a $27,851,016 Tuesday, both of which were holiday inflated since last Wednesday was July 4th. So, that doesn't help any at all. I would love to use 2003's Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines as a box office model. The problem is that T3 earned $12.435 million on its first Wednesday, only 71.5% of Hancock's revenues. So, it's not the best comparison due to the difference in sizes.


What I can say in terms of percentages is that T3 fell 4.4% on its first Thursday to $11.884 million. Then, it bumped 9.7% to $13.036 million on Friday, another 36.1% to $17.741 million on Saturday followed by a 25.2% drop on Sunday to $13.265 million. This is data overload, and I recognize that. Let's dumb it down for a moment and say this. After making $12.435 million on its first day, Rise of the Machines earned another $55.296 million over the Thursday-Sunday period. So, it made a factor of 4.45 more than July 2nd box office over the rest of the long holiday weekend.

Were Hancock to follow this model (and let's be honest that I'm throwing darts with this thought process), we would be looking at another $77.37 million the rest of the week. Combining that $24,221,400 it has already earned would give us a total of just over $100 million at $101.6 million. I would like to think that Hancock will do better than this, but I have to be honest that my training as a box office analyst has taught me that bigger numbers mean smaller multipliers. If that's the case, Hancock may yet throw under $100 million over the five and a quarter day period of its release...and that would be hugely disappointing for Sony, no matter what they might say on Sunday. Let's continue to give the benefit of the doubt here and say that this is only one model that I readily admit may not be a good comparison. It's just the best one we've got.

Combined box office for the top was a jaw-dropping $34,179,567. Obviously, this is the best weekday of the summer to date, easily surpassing Tuesday's previous best total of $26,094,82 by 31.0%. Yes, that is a full $8 million day-to-day bump. Like I said yesterday, the next few days of box office will be among the best from now until December.

Daily Box Office for Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 Hancock Sony/Columbia $17,386,366 +154.4% N/A $24,221,400
2 WALL•E Walt Disney Pictures $6,709,436 - 11.7% N/A $86,311,330
3 Wanted Universal $3,588,405 - 22.1% N/A $65,500,990
4 Get Smart Warner Bros. $1,835,000 - 20.4% - 57.7% $84,500,000
5 Kung Fu Panda DreamWorks $1,383,000 - 12.8% - 49.8% $184,045,000
6 Kit Kittredge: An American Girl Picturehouse $1,115,855 N/A N/A $1,613,624
7 The Incredible Hulk Universal Pictures, Marvel Studios $723,505 - 30.4% - 65.9% $118,945,065
8 Sex and the City New Line Cinema $525,000 - 5.0% - 46.1% $141,874,000
9 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Paramount $489,000 - 14.9% - 47.1% $301,884,000
10 The Love Guru Paramount $424,000 - 29.8% - 68.2% $27,131,000
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



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