Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 17, 2008

The most adorable warrior.

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The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

The considerably lesser known next chapter in C.S. Lewis' Narnia series opened to $19.6 million on Friday. While this is going to win the weekend by a considerable margin, it's down from the $23 million opening day of The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe from December 2005. You can already forget about a duplication of the $291.7 million that eventually ended up with.

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe turned that opening figure into $65.5 million, a 2.85 weekend multiplier. That's fine for December, when films have extended legs over the Christmas to New Year's week. But that would be absolutely disastrous here. I expect a very good Saturday and a somewhat above average Sunday for Prince Caspian, and an internal multiplier around a 3.2. That would be a salvagable $62.7 million weekend, though the legs won't be there like they were for the first film.




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Iron Man

Two-week champ Iron Man crosses the $200 million mark on its 15th day of release with $9 million, down 39% from last Friday. It's full steam ahead now to try to crack $300 million, and a $30 million weekend is a good start to that.

Speed Racer

Weekend two isn't much better for the Wachowski-filmed Speed Racer, off 68% from last Friday to $2 million. Even a final take of $50 million is just about out of the question at this point. Expect about $6.6 million in the second frame.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian 62.7
2 Iron Man 30
3 What Happens In Vegas 14
4 Speed Racer 6.6
5 Made of Honor 5.0
6 Baby Mama 2.7
7 Forgetting Sarah Marshall 2.5
8 Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay 1.7
9 Forbidden Kingdom 1.0
10 The Visitor 0.6

     


 
 

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