Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 10, 2008

Their celebration seemed a bit premature.

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Speed Racer doesn't quite crash and burn, but this certainly isn't the opening that anyone had in mind.

Iron Man

After last weekend's stunning $100 million opening weekend, Iron Man falls back to earth a bit with $12.5 million, dashing any hopes of repeating Spider-Man's feat. It will still win the weekend with relative ease, with $38.7 million.

What Happens In Vegas

Ashton Kutcher's success continues to puzzle everyone, as his romantic comedy with Cameron Diaz opened to a very good $7.1 million on Friday. Looking back at 2005's Guess Who, that started with $7.8 million and earned $20.6 million for the weekend, while 2003's Just Married opened with a $6.3 million Friday, finishing with $17.5 million. I expect a weekend in the upper $19 million range, with perhaps some number fudging to push it over the $20 million mark when the estimates are released.


Speed Racer

I admit to being baffled by the high estimates for Speed Racer around the Internet, and was relieved now that we have learned it only earned $6.1 million. Shiny only gets you so far. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt, since it's probably going to be the most popular option for kids over the remainder of the weekend (though I'm sure they'd rather see Iron Man). I think a best case scenario here is $21.3 million, and there's a good chance that's quite high. Say hello to the first flop of the summer movie season.


The second MMA-themed release this year, Redbelt throws under March's Never Back Down with a mere $300,000 in box office recipts on Friday. I just don't even have the heart to give it $1 million, and there's a chance it misses the full weekend top ten entirely.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Iron Man 39.7
2 Speed Racer 21.3
3 What Happens In Vegas 19.8
4 Made of Honor 7.2
5 Baby Mama 5.9
6 Forgetting Sarah Marshall 3.7
7 Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay 3.2
8 Forbidden Kingdom 1.9
9 Prom Night 1.0
10 Redbelt 0.9



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