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Weekend Forecast for April 18-20, 2008

By Reagen Sulewski

April 18, 2008

You don't happen to know that 5-finger-kill-bill-palm technique, do you?

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Segel probably isn't a huge draw, but then, neither was Seth Rogen, and look where he is now. This isn't quite the concept that Knocked Up was, so I don't expect a huge breakout, but there's enough solid (and dirty) jokes in there to make it at least interesting. The raunchy comedy is a pretty safe go-to at this point, and this one has pretty solid reviews, leading me to believe it should come in with about $14 million.

Many years back, a new Al Pacino cop thriller might have been something to anticipate and celebrate. It still can be, under the right circumstances, but 88 Minutes, his latest, doesn't satisfy those. In it, he and his hair star as a Seattle forensic psychiatrist - a profession that sounds entirely made up, like rock star biologist - who is apparently being stalked by someone he helped put into jail. Through an ominous message, he's informed that he has just 88 minutes to live. It's probably a Back to the Future fan.

Pacino has to figure out exactly who's holding a grudge against him, while dodging constant attempts on his life. Hey, I thought he had 88 minutes! What gives? Reviews for the film are shockingly bad, with most calling it inept and nonsensical - and those are the positive reviews.

You're not going to scare people entirely away from a Pacino film, and even one with as many warning signs as this - noisy, incomprehensible trailers, overacting galore - will be able to ride a bit on his name. Just don't count on any word of mouth. It should bring in about $7 million this weekend, or about $6 million more than it apparently deserves.



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I have debated long and hard about whether to even acknowledge the existence of Expelled, Ben Stein's documentary film that attempts to prove intelligent design and to bash evolution, which debuts this weekend in an astounding 1,000 plus venues. Obviously, I decided to, but really just to say this: don't even see this out of kitsch. These charlatans don't deserve one thin dime of yours.

The remake of Prom Night won last weekend's box office with a depressing $20 million, hastening the day when every single movie in release will be a remake of some 70s teen slasher film. It was almost comically front-loaded, earning $9.5 million on Friday, and $2.9 million on Sunday… and already falling to third mid-week. Is there any percentage drop that doesn't seem plausible with this in mind? 65 per cent? 80 per cent? You can't rule it out. I'll give it a little bit of credit and say it earns $7 million this weekend.

The film that has temporarily taken over top stop is Street Kings, though I don't expect it to fare all that much better than Prom Night. The dirty-cop-thriller, starring Keanu Reeves and a really quite solid cast of actors, took over the mid-week crown mostly by default, by the virtue of not sucking entirely that much. Let's say $7 million for this one as well.

21 is hanging on pretty strongly, dropping just 31 per cent in its second weekend, and crossing the $60 million mark. It's about the only thing for adults right now with good word of mouth, so I expect that to continue, and what do you know, should find itself in that logjam around the $7 million mark.


Forecast: Weekend of April 18-20, 2008
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Forbidden Kingdom 3,151 New 17.3
2 Forgetting Sarah Marshall 2,798 New 14.5
3 Street Kings 2,469 +2 7.5
4 Prom Night 2,700 0 7.3
5 88 Minutes 2,168 New 7.1
6 21 2,903 +167 7.0
7 Nim's Island 3,277 -241 6.0
8 Horton Hears a Who 2,670 -539 4.3
9 Leatherheads 2,796 +25 3.6
10 Smart People 1,119 +13 2.9

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