Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 26, 2008

Kevin Sorbo tries to decide if he's earning enough for this tripe.

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That's not the Statue of Liberty's head that's falling, it's Cloverfield's box office!

Cloverfield

The biggest news among the Friday box office figures is that Cloverfield is a one weekend wonder. Falling 75% from last Friday to $4.1 million, the monster movie was pretty much a lot of hype and gimmick, and while it set the January record, that didn't translate to any word-of-mouth or legs. It's not even a lock for $100 million at this point, after taking in nearly $50 million in four days. For this weekend, it's been topped by two openers and a holdover(!), and it should stay in fourth with $12.8 million.

Meet the Spartans

In a mild upset, spoof Meet the Spartans comes out on top with $6.8 million, showing that nobody learned anything from Epic Movie, which earned the exact same amount as it topped the box office for a weekend a year ago. Somehow, Epic Movie had a 2.72 multiplier on its opening weekend, so we'll apply that to Meet the Spartans as well, which translates to an $18.7 million weekend.




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Rambo

The return of John Rambo is met with a decent $6.7 million on Friday. Rocky Balboa is a difficult comparison since it opened over Christmas 2006, but opening day was rather close. I'm looking for about $18 million for the weekend, not quite getting ahead of Meet the Spartans.

Untraceable

Diane Lane's cyber-thriller is met with only $3.7 million on Friday. The movie with a premise that is completely offensive to anyone who has ever used a computer looks to have a $10.7 million weekend.

There Will Be Blood

Paul Thomas Anderson's Oscar nominated film starring Daniel Day-Lewis expands to 885 theaters and earns $1.2 million on Friday. Tied with No Country For Old Men with eight nominations, this will certainly be something to watch over the next several weeks. For now, look for $4.4 million for the weekend.

How She Move

Another You Got Served or Stomp the Yard it's not, thankfully, but with $1.2 million it slides into the tenth spot. It should come in with $3.7 million for the weekend and a quick trip to DVD from here.

Notable Holdovers

27 Dresses does drop 45% from last Friday, but it actually just squeaks ahead of Cloverfield and its epic collapse. Romantic comedies tend to have better second weekend multiplier than monster movies, so the gap should widen just a bit. Look for $13.6 million in weekend two.

Otherwise, the big winner from this week's Academy Award nominations is Juno, down just 4% from last Friday. $100 million by the end of the weekend is a long shot, but it will probably do it some time during the upcoming week.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Meet the Spartans 18.7
2 Rambo 18.0
3 27 Dresses 13.6
4 Cloverfield 12.8
5 Untraceable 10.7
6 Juno 9.5
7 The Bucket List 9.2
8 There Will Be Blood 4.4
9 Mad Money 3.9
10 How She Move 3.7

     


 
 

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