Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 12, 2008

Show us your dentures!

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They has a bucket, and no one be takin' it from them.

The Bucket List

The Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman pairing just edges out First Sunday on Friday with $6.3 million. It's a good weekend for this film, given that everything else from the holidays has pretty much run its course, and there's no official televised Golden Globes ceremony to kneecap its Sunday. That should give it a decent weekend multiplier for all those old folks out there to see this. I'll give The Bucket List a 3.2 multiplier, good for a $20.1 million weekend.

First Sunday

The Ice Cube and Tracy Morgan comedy First Sunday earned a not-bad-at-all $6.2 million on Friday. Looking at Cube's previous comedies, his most recent non-family being 2002's Friday After Next, which had a 2.94. I'm seeing something around 2.8 to 2.9 for First Sunday based on that. I figure about a $17.6 million weekend.


The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything: A VeggieTales Movie

Despite getting more screens than 2002's Jonah, the second VeggieTales movie to get a theatrical release actually takes a big step backwards, with just $1.1 million Friday. Jonah had earned $1.9 million back in 2002, and had a 3.26 multiplier. I'll give it the same here, but it's still going to finish out of the top ten with $3.5 million.

In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Movie

The BOP staff have a little more spring in their step this weekend, seeing as Dr. Uwe Boll's latest video game adaptation disaster, In the Name of the King, opens out of the top ten with just $950,000 on Friday. While there's no chance that it throws under BloodRayne's $1.5 million from two years ago, but it's probably not going to top Alone In the Dark's $2.8 million. I see about $2.5 million.

Notable Holdovers

Juno is bumped down a notch by The Bucket List and First Sunday, but it's still doing very well, off just 14% from a week ago. Even though there's no ceremony, if it picks up the comedy/musical Golden Globe or wins Ellen Page Best Actress, look out. Give it $13.5 million this weekend.

National Treasure: Book of Secrets finally relinquishes the top slot after three weeks, falling 48% from last Friday. It will be pushing $200 million after this weekend, so nobody is really torn up about this or anything. Expect a weekend of $10.4 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Bucket List 20.1
2 First Sunday 17.6
3 Juno 13.5
4 National Treasure: Book of Secrets 10.4
5 I Am Legend 7.8
6 Alvin and the Chipmunks 6.3
7 One Missed Call 6.0
8 P.S. I Love You 4.8
9 Charlie Wilson's War 4.1
10 Atonement 4.0



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