Daily Box Office Analysis for December 10, 2007
By David Mumpower
December 11, 2007
In point of fact, the $1.7 million for The Golden Compass is less than what Daniel Craig's last major December release, Casino Royale, earned in its second Monday in release. This is particularly troubling given that the latest Bond flick's second Monday occurred immediately after Thanksgiving, making it the centrifugal point of the moment box office dies for four days. Anything in release the week after Thanksgiving is going to get destroyed since people had all the free time they wanted to see a movie the prior week. If they wouldn't go see one during a five-day holiday period, they certainly aren't going to see one during the following Monday-Thursday period.
In terms of percentage holdovers, Apocalypto fell 65.5% from its first Sunday of $4.37 million to its first Monday of $1.51 million. Casino Royale fell 71.9% from its holiday-inflated second Sunday of $6.16 million to its second Monday of $1.73 million. Apocalypto's first Monday represents 10.1% of its weekend total. Casino Royale's post-holiday deflated Monday represents 5.6% of its holiday-inflated total. Those are the two logical extremes for comparison to The Golden Compass. Its total of $1.7 million on Monday is a decline of 75.1% from the Sunday tally of $6.823 million. The $1.7 million reflects 6.6% of its weekend box office. That puts it much closer to Casino Royale, which had outlying factors both ways to artificially deflate its result, than to Apocalypto, a film with which it should compare quite similarly. Given this knowledge, what has just happened to The Golden Compass is a dreadful result. This would be body blow number two. People simply do not want to see this movie.
With regards to the top ten as a whole, the news is much better. Last Monday, December 3rd, saw combined top ten box office of $4,327,743. The top ten was anchored by Enchanted, which earned a steady $779,510. With a much stronger first place entrant in terms of actual box office (Enchanted is obviously the much bigger movie overall, just not in the isolated comparison of Monday box office), yesterday's top ten winds up with $4,836,939. This is an increase of 11.8%, but keep in mind that what I just said about Casino Royale is applicable here as well. Last Monday's films were dealing with the post-Thanksgiving box office lull, a scenario that becomes less of a factor with each passing week in December. As such, this total may be better in terms of simple mathematics, but the underlying mechanics of it are not good. There are only two movies making as much as $500,000 right now, and only four are making $400,000. Even during the post-Thanksgiving lull last Monday, there were still five titles earning at least $400,000. The point of this is that the next three days are going to be yet another brutal period for box office in the Fall of 2007. I Am Legend desperately needs to be huge to get the industry out of its slump.
||His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass
||New Line Cinema
||Walt Disney Pictures
||No Country for Old Men
||Twentieth Century Fox
||MGM, The Weinstein Company
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations