Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 6, 2007

I don't know where you heard the word c*cks*cker, but you should never ever say it.

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Ben Stiller's latest takes the top spot for Friday, but The Rock's Game Plan should be back on top for the weekend.

The Heartbreak Kid

Ben Stiller's reunion with the Farrelly Brothers doesn't really go as planned. The Heartbreak Kid earned $5.1 million on Friday, a pretty mediocre figure. Going back to 2004's Along Came Polly, which probably works best as a comparison, the January(!) release opened with $8.8 million. Yikes. A best case internal multiplier is something similar to what Polly had, which was 3.1, giving The Heartbreak Kid a still kind of disappointing $15.8 million.

Feel the Noise

In just barely over a thousand screens, Feel the Noise comes up with $1.1 million on Friday. You Got Served probably works well here as a comparison for weekend multiplier, which had a 2.68 on Super Bowl weekend back in 2004. That's $2.9 million for Feel the Noise, a moderately okay weekend for a film I didn't know existed until Friday.


The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising

This is another release this weekend that I was not aware of, but apparently I wasn't the only one as despite 3,141 theaters, The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising only earned $1 million on Friday. Apparently it's a children's release, despite sounding like a horror title, so it might have an above average weekend multiplier, but that's still not saying much. Look for about $3 million for the weekend.

The Game Plan

The Game Plan is turning into a solid hit after last week's opening, off just 30% from last Friday. Going back to our best comparison, The Pacifier had an even better mutiplier in its second weekend than the first. With no other options for families, The Rock's family comedy will probably stay on top for a second weekend, especially since there's a good chance I'm overestimating The Heartbreak Kid's weekend somewhat. I'll give it $16.5 million in weekend number two.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Game Plan 16.5
2 The Heartbreak Kid 15.8
3 The Kingdom 8.9
4 Resident Evil: Extinction 4.2
5 Good Luck Chuck 3.3
6 Seeker: The Dark is Rising 3.0
7 Feel the Noise 2.9
8 3:10 To Yuma 2.9
9 Mr. Woodcock 2.1
10 The Brave One 2.1



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