Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

September 29, 2007

We're guessing they learn how to live together by the end of the movie.

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Viewers definitely smelled what The Rock was cooking on Friday.

The Game Plan

The Rock's family comedy pulls off a slight upset this weekend, coming in first on Friday with $6.2 million. I don't think it's that much of a shocker, really, as The Game Plan is pretty much the first family option released since Mr. Bean's Holiday at the end of August. My favorite comparison for this movie all along has been March 2005's The Pacifier, which also had a legit tough guy (Vin Diesel, remember him?) in a Disney family comedy where wacky hijinks ensued. Believe it or not, that had a 3.55 weekend multiplier as it opened to $30.5 million. Again, as the only option for families in a month, there's a good chance something similar happens here. (Even The Rock's last football-based movie, last year's Gridiron Gang, scored a 3.0 for its opening weekend). I'm going with a quite solid $21.8 million for The Game Plan this weekend.


The Kingdom

The action-oriented (or so the advertisements would like you to believe) The Kingdom earns a not-bad $5.9 million on Friday. Critics have responded with a general "meh" and this is a movie that does pretty much hinge on how well it's reviewed, so the fact that it's behind The Game Plan isn't all that much of a surprise. Look for about $17.7 million this weekend

Notable Holdovers

The poster child for front-loading, Resident Evil: Extinction falls 75% from last Friday. Yikes. This performance so far has been a carbon copy of RE: Apocalypse, so much so that it's kind of scary. Figure $7.6 million for weekend number two.

Good Luck Chuck doesn't fare much better, falling 61% from a weekend ago with $2 million, as BOP secretly rejoices (oops, was that out loud?). I look for $6.1 million this weekend.

We actually do have good news to report in this section this week. After sneaking into the top ten last Friday, but missing it with the overall weekend chart, Across the Universe expands slightly to 339 screens and does it again, earning $712,000, a 10% uptick. $2.2 million for the weekend might just be enough to do it this time, though.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Game Plan 21.8
2 The Kingdom 17.7
3 Resident Evil: Extinction 7.6
4 Good Luck Chuck 6.1
5 3:10 To Yuma 4.0
6 The Brave One 3.3
7 Eastern Promises 2.8
8 Mr. Woodcock 2.8
9 Sydney White 2.6
10 Across the Universe 2.2



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