September 2007 Forecast
By Nouvelle Vague
September 7, 2007
PREDICTION – $23 million opening – $82 million total
Resident Evil: Extinction
Last. Threepeat. Of 2007. There's no mystery around this one. The franchise has a loyal fanbase that, for some reason, keeps coming out for these. The first installment came out to $17.7 million in 2002 and the sequel scored a $23 million opening in September of 2004. I may be underestimating a bit here, but I see some wear-and-tear in this franchise, especially if you look at the pathetic box office of the Milla Jovovich vehicle, Ultraviolet, which bombed its way to a $9.1 million opening in 2006. Here's to hoping the subtitle refers to the franchise.
PREDICTION – $20 million opening – $45 million total
The Brave One
The question here is: Is this Flightplan ($24.6 million September opening) and The Forgotten ($21 million September opening) or Freedomland ($5.8 million opening)? It will come down to the marketing and awareness, but I think it's a safe bet for a decent opening weekend. Also consider it's a Neil Jordan production with Jodie Foster. We should see great reviews and Jordan's biggest box office return since Interview with a Vampire. While female led thrillers have made their mark two years in a row in September (and had fantastic lives on home video), I think this one isn't as audience friendly as Flightplan or The Forgotten, but it should still be a success story with great demand on DVD.
PREDICTION – $15 million opening – $51 million total
3:10 To Yuma
Until studio execs get it through their thick skulls that Westerns are an underserved genre, the few that get released will continue to be extremely profitable. With Russell Crowe and Christian Bale headlining and Peter Fonda supporting, good reviews expected, and built in fan base from the original film and the genre in general, this film has a chance to hit all kinds of age demographics and should end up #1 against decent competition (Shoot 'Em Up) its opening weekend. Expect decent legs as well and a long life on DVD.
PREDICTION – $14 million opening – $45 million total
I can't see audiences coming out to see a movie about a bombing in the Middle East when they see and hear about them everyday in their real lives. Iraq War apathy will seriously diminish its box office, even if it has a good cast (Jamie Foxx, Danny Huston and Chris Cooper) and is opening against a family film in September's best non-holiday weekend. Cast couldn't save Home of the Brave, and won't save this.
PREDICTION – $12 million opening – $36 million total.
Good Luck Chuck
Alba has opened two movies as the centerpiece of the marketing – Honey ($12.9 million opening in 2003) and Into the Blue ($7.1 million opening in 2005). Dane Cook only really has opened up one - Employee of the Month ($11.4 million opening last year). If you also consider that Reese Witherspoon followed up September's best hit of all time – Sweet Home Alabama - with the massively underperforming Just Like Heaven ($16.4 million opening in September of 2005), I can't see this being a hit at all. I'm being generous with my prediction below.