Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 14, 2007

Sirius Black=best Potter character ever.

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While Deathly Hallows, the final book in the Harry Potter series, is out next week, this weekend it's Harry Potter and the huge stacks of cash.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

$26.3 million on Friday for the fifth entry in the Harry Potter series is a very solid rebound from Thursday but predictably does not approach the $44.2 million earned on Wednesday. Prisoner of Azkaban, the third film in the series, was the first to be released over the summer rather than in November. It had only a three-day release and earned $93.6 million back in 2004. The opening day figure was $38.2 million, a 2.44 multiplier. What we're going to have here is a multiplier actually helped by the Wednesday opening as that's when the initial crush was. Witness last week's Transformers. It had a $3 million uptick from Friday's figure (and 3.11 multiplier for the entire weekend), though neither Friday or Saturday matched the Tuesday or Wednesday figures. Box Office Prophets has often questioned Wednesday releases, since for the most part, a film can earn from Friday to Sunday what it ends up earning from Wednesday to Sunday, but when we're dealing with numbers this huge, who cares?

I expect a weekend of $78 million for Order of the Phoenix, for $140.5 million since Wednesday.



Was there more than meets the eye to last week's champ? Or would it collapse in weekend number two like so many other summer entries this year. Well, it's down 52% from last Friday with $10.8 million so while it could've been worse (again, the Tuesday opening essentially prevented this from being a 65% or more decline), it's essentially going to be an afterthought in another week or so, while hitting $200 million today. Figure $34.7 million for the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 78.0
2 Transformers 34.7
3 Ratatouille 16.4
4 Live Free or Die Hard 10.3
5 License to Wed 7.2
6 1408 5.0
7 Evan Almighty 4.4
8 Knocked Up 3.9
9 Sicko 2.4
10 Ocean's Thirteen 1.8



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