Daily Box Office Analysis for July 11, 2007
By David Mumpower
July 12, 2007
November 18, 2005, the first day for Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, was $39,767,468. Even if we adjust for inflation, that is a total of $42,124,978, meaning that Phoenix has edged Goblet in terms of actual first day ticket sales despite the fact that the latter movie had a tremendous advantage in opening on a Friday as opposed to Wednesday. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban had a first day total of $38,268,295 on June 4, 2004, and it inflation adjusts to $41,842,457. Again, Order of the Phoenix beats this title despite having the disadvantage of the Wednesday opening. The difference becomes even more dramatic with Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets. That movie earned $29,631,453 on November 15, 2002. That is an inflation-adjusted debut of $34,689,235. Order of the Phoenix just crushes that.
Similarly, we would expect the first J.K. Rowling adaptation, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone to have the best chance of unseating the fifth outing's performance, but it does not. The first Potter title managed a then-stunning $32,333,203 on November 16, 2001. At that point, it was the single largest day of box office in history (though it surpassed its own record the next day). Even if we give it the 20% bump for inflation adjustment, however, it still winds up with $38,857,071, well short of the mark set by Order of the Phoenix. In fact, if we inflation adjust the first Potter movie's biggest day, which is $33,512,941, we still only wind up with a 2007 value of $40,274,944. So, no matter how we evaluate the latest Harry Potter release, whether that is through actual dollars comparison or with adjustment for inflation, it still stands as the single best performance of the franchise to date. And again, this was done on a Wednesday sans the benefit of any holiday-related vacation boost.
What else do you need to know? Order of the Phoenix's $44,232,338 represents the fourth best day of the summer to date, presuming that we include early May releases Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third in summer discussions (and BOP does). It is the second biggest opening day of the summer thus far behind Spider-Man 3's record-setting $59,841,919. Shrek the Third's largest day was its first Saturday of $47,077,497, as it managed "only" $38,426,991 on its opening day. Order of the Phoenix is unlikely to duplicate such behavior. Given the Potter Mania sweeping the world as millions of fans anxiously await the concluding book to the epic series, consumers were in a rush to watch the latest movie at first opportunity. Despite this, I still envision Order of the Phoenix holding up well from now until Sunday, but I do believe its first day of box office will prove to be its largest. If I am wrong, look out. The box office here could be legendary in scope.
The rest of the top ten sees the expected declines from last Wednesday's holiday-inflated numbers. The nine returning titles from the previous week's top ten earned a collective $17,028,635 yesterday as opposed to a whopping $56,732,460 last Wednesday. Folks, that is a drop of 70%. Staggering, innit? Keeping this in mind, the 75.9% drop of Transformers from $29,100,000 last week to $7,003,058 is still precipitous, but given the relevant context, it is also not shocking. The other action titles, Live Free Or Die Hard and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, experienced similar declines. Despite this, the presence of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix means that the top ten had combined receipts of $61,260,973, which is an increase of, well, a factor of three from Tuesday's $20,039,328. Wow, huh? That total also represents an improvement of 5.8% from last Wednesday's record-setting July 4th revenue of $57,887,683. Stating the obvious, 2007 box office is on the right track again.
||Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
||Walt Disney Pictures
||Live Free or Die Hard
||Twentieth Century Fox
||License to Wed
||Lionsgate, The Weinstein Company
||Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
||Twentieth Century Fox
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations