Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

July 9, 2007

Hit it here, Barry Bonds! Er, nevermind.

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Joel Corcoran: I think the Transformers opening is equal to any we've seen this year. I'd rank it ahead of Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, and only slightly behind Spider-Man 3. This film is to the 2007 summer box office what George Mason University was to the 2006 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The film broke a couple of one-day records and matched the first Spider-Man's seven-day take. According to Paramount and Dreamworks, the movie had across-the-board appeal in terms of audience demographics. And we're talking about a film without an established franchise (unlike Shrek 3, Spider-Man 3, or Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End) directed by a guy whose last film set the very definition of "box office dud." I loved the movie, but I haven't had a moment of jaw-dropping astonishment like this since Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.

Reagen Sulewski: Simply because of that spread out release pattern, I can't rank it with the big three of this year so far in terms of opening weekend performance. I think it definitely burned out a bit of its audience pre-weekend, which is why this doesn't even come close to them, when a more compressed release slate might have put it north of $100 million. That said, Superman Returns tried more or less the same thing last year and came up about 20% short after a hot first day.

Joel Corcoran: Did your friends steal your Optimus Prime action figure from you when you were a kid, Reagen? I think comparing Transformers solely against Superman Returns only reinforces how impressive the Autobots and Decepticons have performed in the modern-day box office. Superman had the advantage of re-booting a known and proven franchise (well ... mostly ...). Transformers had a devoted fan base of nostalgic men approaching middle age desperately trying to hold onto their youths (I include myself in this demographic). Superman was directed by Bryan Singer, a director with a unique ability to make films that were popular, action-packed, and critically acclaimed (The Usual Suspects and X2 ... we'll consider Apt Pupil a minor stumble). Transformers is directed by Michael Bay. Lest we forget The Island, we have to overlook Bad Boys II, Pearl Harbor, and Armageddon before we get back over ten years to one of his films that really fit the term "summer blockbuster." I would've been pleased as punch with a movie that, unlike Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, was good enough not to ruin my childhood memories. The fact that it broke any box office records at all and is at least a contender for the top-grossing movie of the year (we'll see about that over the next two weeks) is utterly astounding to me.




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David Mumpower: I think the key to all of these discussions is whether we isolate the opening weekend from the rest of the week or not. On its own, a $67.6 million debut is none too impressive for a movie with a $150 million budget. When we factor in the entirety of the week, however, a title that exceeds Shrek the Third's first full week looks like a box office monolith.

Reagen Sulewski: I think you're mixing in reception to the movie with how well it did. There's a pretty fundamental difference here when we compare it to Spider-Man 3 - that film did more than twice what this film did in a comparable time period, and it took six and a half days of Transformers to equal three of it. Five days in the case of Shrek 3 and Pirates 3. There is an admittedly impressive amount of sustenance to the seven day total and kudos to Spielberg and Bay for guiding this to the result. But straight up against May's big three? Those are much more impressive in the realm of getting lots of butts in seats fast.


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