Daily Box Office Analysis for June 26, 2007

By David Mumpower

June 27, 2007

The studio execs who gave Evan Almighty a $200 million budget.

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After yesterday's comprehensive update, there isn't much going on today. Evan Almighty fell 5.9% to $3,694,125, good enough for the top spot. Before we get too excited, however, it is important to note that this is the third largest drop within the top ten, unusually poor behavior for an ostensibly family-friendly summer release.

The second place finisher, 1408, received even worse news. The Steven King adaptation experienced the steepest decline inside the top ten, falling 14.0% to $2,393,034. A similar plunge later in the week could see it overtaken by Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer for second place. This isn't entirely unexpected given that film skewing much, much younger than the psychological horror title; however, given the hugely positive buzz for 1408, this is troubling behavior we will have to monitor over the next couple of weeks.

Speaking of the Fantastic Four sequel, it did the expected on Tuesday and surpassed the $100 million mark. Its current box office stands at $102,050,188. Despite doing better than 1408, it remains in a lot of trouble, though. The Tuesday decline of 7.1% slots between the above two movies as the second worst of the day. Stating the obvious, the holding power demonstrated on Tuesday came only from lesser titles. In fact, the films in eighth through tenth place (Shrek the Third, Nancy Drew and A Mighty Heart) all saw increases yesterday. Meanwhile, the films in fourth through seventh place (Knocked Up, Ocean's Thirteen, Surf's Up and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End) all fell between 1.7 and 3.6% except for Surf's Up, which gained 3.0%. That's strikingly uniform behavior for everything outside the top three.


The end result is that today's overall top ten is weaker than yesterday by 5.0%. $15,248,23. For comparison, June 6th had top ten box office of $13,073,045; June 12th's top ten tallied $14,068,392; last Tuesday's top ten is the winner for June with $16,320,988. The depressing thought is that the Monday-to-Tuesday drops for the past three weeks had been 4.5%, 4.1% and 3.0%. So, yesterday's behavior is not a good sign. Frankly, June as a whole has been a bust, but that should change starting tomorrow as we get a massive debut in the form of Live Free Or Die Hard.

Daily Box Office for Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 Evan Almighty Universal $3,694,125 - 6.0% N/A $38,815,100
2 1408 Dimension Films $2,393,034 - 14.0% N/A $25,792,109
3 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Twentieth Century Fox $2,209,632 - 7.1% - 56.7% $102,050,188
4 Knocked Up Universal $1,501,335 - 3.0% - 30.7% $112,372,180
5 Ocean's Thirteen Warner Bros. $1,371,028 - 3.6% - 42.6% $93,872,922
6 Surf's Up Sony/Columbia $1,051,679 + 3.4% - 30.6% $49,262,249
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Walt Disney Pictures $966,588 - 1.7% - 33.0% $288,951,288
8 Shrek the Third DreamWorks $834,439 + 3.0% - 34.0% $309,452,117
9 Nancy Drew Warner Bros. $808,406 + 2.8% - 36.0% $17,661,907
10 A Mighty Heart Paramount Vantage $417,971 + 5.2% N/A $4,764,225
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



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