Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 23, 2007

One too many people asked him if it was okay if they date Beth.

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Evan Almighty

The Steve Carell family comedy gets off to a decent start, with Friday earnings of $11.1 million. Throw out any comparisons to Bruce Almighty, as that had Jim Carrey at his peak and also opened over Memorial Day. Suffice to say Evan Almighty won't be breaking any records. However, it's got the family hook to it that it's pretty much got all to itself until Ratatouille comes around next week. That should lead to an opening weekend estimate of $34.4 million.


Get a Steven King adaptation, add actors people have heard of (especially Samuel L. Jackson and John Cusack) and your film can be a success too! 1408 earned $7.5 million on Friday, quite good considering the many horror flameouts this year. It might have some struggles over the rest of the weekend, but it should still be good for $19.5 million, though if there's some creative rounding used at MGM and the estimate comes in around $20 million I won't be surprised.


A Mighty Heart

Angelina Jolie's A Mighty Heart slides into the tenth spot with $1.1 million on Friday, about the best that could be hoped for given the screen count and the subject matter. Expect about $3.5 million for the weekend, and for it to be remembered later on this year as it's unofficially the year's first Oscar contender.

Notable Holdovers

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer plunges a disturbing 72% from last Friday, continuting the tradition of second week collapses from franchise films this year. This is going to be eerily similar to the original's second weekend performance, where that declined 59.3% from opening weekend (and had a Friday to Friday drop of 68.2%). Look for a second weekend tally of $18.8 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Evan Almighty 34.4
2 1408 19.5
3 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 18.8
4 Ocean's Thirteen 11.4
5 Knocked Up 10.5
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 7.6
7 Surf's Up 6.6
8 Shrek the Third 5.7
9 Nancy Drew 4.9
10 A Mighty Heart 3.5



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