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Weekend Forecast for June 15-17, 2007

By Reagen Sulewski

June 15, 2007

Isn't it romantic?

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The third new film of the weekend is a refugee from last summer, DOA: Dead or Alive. Based on the video game of the same title, this film has already premiered in just about every other country in the world before hitting only 500 theaters here, in what smells of a contractual obligation.

Directed by Cory Yuen, most notable in North America for helming The Transporter, as well as providing fight choreography for dozens of Hollywood films, the film features five butt-kicking women (Jaime Pressly, Devon Aoki, Holly Valance, Natasha Malthie and Sarah Carter – if you recognize more than three of them, you're ahead of the curve) who enter a martial arts competition, first as rivals, later banding together against a common enemy. In one of those quirks of the schedule, this common enemy is played by none other than Eric Roberts, who finds himself opening a film against his daughter. Good times, good times.

Most of what you need to know about this film can be summed up by the fact that this video game is noted for "realistic" breast bouncing mechanics, and spawned a spin-off beach volleyball game. NOW won't be honoring this film at year's end. Mostly going for that "so bad it's good" aesthetic, DOA should find cult status, but only about $3 million this weekend.

The $36 million that Ocean's Thirteen opened to last weekend was enough to win the box office race, but fell short of either of the previous films in the series, showing just what damage Ocean's Twelve did. While not receiving the rapturous praise that Ocean's Eleven did, Thirteen was a big improvement on the huge inside joke that was Twelve. This potentially bodes well for legs, but I think it's just a bit too late for that in this series. Look for a $22 million weekend, with it moving past $75 million total after two weekends.




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As expected, Knocked Up was able to translate positive word-of-mouth into a strong second weekend, following up a $30 million weekend with last week's almost $20 million showing. Judd Apatow can do no wrong in the eyes of the public right now, and Seth Rogen is about to become a major star. It's a bizarre but appreciated development, at least from our perspective here. Add another $13 million to the film's total this weekend.

Among the heavy hitters remaining, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End lopped off another half of its business in its third weekend, though managing to hold on to second spot at the box office. It won't be so lucky this weekend, and it will fall to at least fourth spot, and perhaps as low as sixth if the stars align against it. Shrek the Third will come very close to the $300 million mark, while Spider-Man 3 very probably drops out of the top ten, just six weeks after smashing opening weekend records.

Sony's attempt at cashing in on the penguin craze with Surf's Up didn't quite work – its $17 million take is about average for a second tier CGI animated film these days, and it has just one more weekend to rack up business before Ratatouille crushes it. Give it $9 million for the weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of June 15-17, 2007
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 3,957 New 49.2
2 Ocean's Thirteen 3,565 0 21.6
3 Knocked Up 2,905 +29 13.5
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 3,329 -673 10.3
5 Nancy Drew 2,612 New 10.2
6 Surf's Up 3,531 +3 9.6
7 Shrek the Third 3,505 -420 7.0
8 Hostel: Part II 2,350 0 3.5
9 Mr. Brooks 1,923 -530 2.5
10 DOA: Dead or Alive 505 New 2.5

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