Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
June 11, 2007
Isn't Thirteen supposed to be bigger than Twelve or Eleven?Kim Hollis: Ocean's Thirteen opened to $37.1 million this weekend, a solid number but the lowest of the franchise's three releases. What should Warner Bros. think of this and what is the cause of the decline?
Tim Briody: They should be pretty happy, really. It's only a marginal decline, which you can probably attribute to Ocean's Twelve sucking.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, the quality of Ocean's Twelve didn't help this one any. Add that to the fact that every blockbuster three-quel before it this summer has sucked (in the minds of audiences, not me) and it just didn't have the same chance to gain viewers. Compared to tracking, I would have to say Warner Bros. is the tiniest bit disappointed, though Ocean's Thirteen will assuredly make plenty of money.
David Mumpower: Tim has the causality drilled. We can tap dance around this all we want, but the reality is that Ocean's Twelve was a mess. So, consumers are correct to be tentative about going to see its successor. This number is a bit scary for WB in that the movie was tracking for a $45-$50 million opening. Also, the inflation-adjusted numbers are $45.8 million for Ocean's Eleven and $42.9 million for Ocean's Twelve. This one is well behind their pace.
Reagen Sulewski: All the press coming into this film was that Soderbergh and company knew they had blown it with Ocean's Twelve. As this summer has shown us, you can't take an audience for granted anymore and expect that they'll forgive you for a shaky second outing of a series. I think this is a pretty respectable number in that regard and with the better reception of this film, they can cap this series off with a positive feeling.
Joel Corcoran: As opposed to Shrek 3's performance not that long ago. That movie had a rock-solid pedigree (at least in terms of popularity), so Shrek 3 had a stellar opening. So, I guess the lesson to be learned is that success in Hollywood is that feeding people a bunch of crap time after time will work, as long as they like the crap you're feeding them.
Tim Briody: It's going to be somewhat interesting to see where it goes from here as Eleven and Twelve were December releases and cashed in on the Christmas gravy train. It's only a bit off of the opening weekends of the other two, but could easily end up well below Ocean's Twelve's total of $125.5 million
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I would have to think that it's going to suffer in the legs department.
David Mumpower: That's the other scary aspect. December releases exhibit an established box office behavior of deflated opening weekends followed by extreme legs due to the holiday season being the largest two week vacation period on the calendar in North America. Ocean's Thirteen does not have that luxury, so it might not recover from this, which is unfortunate since the movie is grrrrrreat.
Tim Briody: What it's got going for it is that it's better received than Twelve, though maybe not as Eleven, so the WB really shouldn't have any complaints if it manages to leg it out above the aforementioned total of Twelve, though I wouldn't bet on it based on the summer so far.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't know if Thirteen is going to have fantastic legs, but I'd be willing to be it performs better in the long run than Twelve.
Joel Corcoran: I'm vastly disappointed and even more bitter at that mess Ocean's Twelve was. Ocean's Thirteen is directly in the mode of Ocean's Eleven. Brilliant, scintillating dialogue; a loping plotline with just enough twists to be interesting, but not so much it's distracting; and a whole helluva lot of fun. But if it doesn't shake off the stain of Ocean's Twelve, we're never going to see Ocean's Fourteen, and that will be a real disappointment.
Kim Hollis: It's probably going to have to rely on international numbers (which have always been strong for the series) and DVD to really establish a foothold.
David Mumpower: What is important, however, is that the franchise has been re-secured in terms of quality after an egregious misstep in Ocean's Twelve. So, it's a Batman Begins sort of situation.
Joel Corcoran: I just hope it isn't the Star Trek franchise in reverse (where the even-number movies suck).
Reagen Sulewski: As much fun as the odd numbered films of this series have been, I'm anxious to see Soderbergh move on. Of course, I think his best movie is Schizopolis, so I admit I might be on the tail end of the curve there.
Tim Briody: It'd kind of be hilarious if they just continued moving through the teen numbers with a new release every couple years.
David Mumpower: See, I would go an entirely different way with it. I'd kill off half the group and make the next movie Ocean's Six. Then, over the next ten years or so, we can gradually build back up until we have Ocean's New Eleven.
Kim Hollis: Or we could just flashback to six. Make Reuben and Saul young men who are just teaching Danny and Rusty the ropes.
David Mumpower: And Emma Roberts could play the Julia Roberts character!
Kim Hollis: With Topher Grace as Rusty.