Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 9, 2007

I really do wish you would get a feather trim. Those things look silly.

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Ocean's Thirteen

According to Variety, the third go-around for Danny Ocean and gang earned $13.1 million on Friday, tops at the box office with ease. It's a little tough to compare this to Ocean's Eleven and Twelve, as those were December releases, though for the record Eleven had a 2.86 multiplier off a $13.3 million Friday and Twelve opened with $14.5 million and a 2.7 weekend multiplier. What we can likely assume is a somewhat higher internal multiplier opening weekend in exchange for a final box office mutliplier, as December legs kick the butt of June legs. I'll give Ocean's Thirteen a $40.3 million weekend, right in line with the opening weekends of Eleven and Twelve.

Surf's Up

Just like last year's Happy Feet, animated penguins once again surprise the box office with $5.7 million for Surf's Up. A couple of weeks ago, the idea that this would be ahead of Shrek this weekend was probably considered crazy. Surf's Up should finish with a solid weekend of $19.7 million and should hold its own for a few weeks until Ratatouille comes along at the end of the month.


Hostel: Part II

Lionsgate's hopes for another Saw franchise out of Eli Roth's Hostel series seem to have gone by the wayside with an opening day gross of $3.4 million. This is way off from Hostel's first day take of $7.6 million back in January of last year. The 2.56 multiplier seems like a good comparison since it's still a horror movie, so $8.7 million seems to be the sequel's destination.

Knocked Up

The second Friday number for Judd Apatow's Knocked Up shows $6.2 million, off 38% from last Friday, so it's not quite The 40 Year-Old Virgin, but this is still a very good number. David Mumpower followed this one closely during the Daily Box Office Analysis, and it's going to slightly exceed his expectations for a weekend decline. Figure $21.2 million, a 31% weekend decline.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ocean's Thirteen 40.3
2 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 21.4
3 Knocked Up 21.2
4 Surf's Up 19.7
5 Shrek the Third 16.7
6 Hostel: Part II 8.7
7 Mr. Brooks 4.7
8 Spider-Man 3 4.5
9 Waitress 1.7
10 Disturbia 0.5



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