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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 4, 2015

Happy Independence Day!

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Inside Out

The number one film on Friday for the third weekend in a row (despite finishing second both of the previous weekends) is Inside Out, down just 16.5% from last Friday with another $12.5 million.

The last time July 4th fell on a Saturday was 2009, when new releases Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies also had Wednesday openings. July 4th is one of the great anti-holidays of box office, and what this generally means is that anyone who wanted to see a movie this weekend probably did so on Friday. Saturday’s box office will see a sharp decline, followed by a marginal rebound on Sunday. Fireworks and barbecues have more pull than anything in theaters.

Not even family films are exempt from this, as new release Ice Age 3 dropped from $17.1 million on Friday to $11.3 million on Saturday back in 2009. For a Pixar comparison, Up was in its sixth weekend and still only managed a 2.4 weekend multiplier.

While there’s a bottleneck at the top yet again, and it’s going to be really close, Inside Out should finally take the weekend title from Jurassic World with about $30 million.

Jurassic World

Jurassic World continues rolling along, down just 20% from last Friday with $11.8 million. There’s certainly enough left in the tank to get to $600 million, and if this wasn’t a holiday weekend, it would’ve come really close. But look for that milestone next weekend. It’s another $27.7 million for the weekend for what is already the fourth biggest film of all time.




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Terminator: Genisys

Much like last weekend, our first opener is in third place. Arnold Schwarzenegger is back with the fifth Terminator film, which is a reboot. Or maybe it’s a sequel. Or maybe it’s just an alternate timeline. Who knows? Anyway, audiences were not that impressed, starting it off with $9 million on Friday and $15.4 million in its first two days before a Friday take of $10.6 million. So they might wanna hold off on those sequels just yet. Audiences didn’t buy into the CGI heavy film with lousy reviews, and even in this era of massive box office and considerable inflation over 20 years, Terminator 2’s $201 million franchise high is still safe. Look for $26.5 million for the weekend and just about $42 million over five days.

Magic Mike XXL

The Magic Mike sequel stuffed $6.3 million singles into its earnings on Friday after actually topping the box office on Wednesday with $9.3 million before sliding back to $5.7 million on Thursday, for a total of $15 million. Channing Tatum and crew surprised us with $113 million back in 2012, but the sequel peaked a good bit earlier. It is one of the most female-skewed audiences in history, and that might improve its chances on the rest of the weekend, but in all likelihood it will follow the same pattern as everything else. Magic Mike XXL takes $15.1 million on the weekend and $30.1 million over five days.

Ted 2

The last relevant entry this weekend is last weekend’s opener, Ted 2. After giving back over $20 million from the opening weekend of the first film, the Seth MacFarlane sequel plummets 66.8% from last Friday to just $4.4 million. Ted earned $218.6 million and now at $51.6 million to date, not only has Ted 2 yet to match Ted’s opening weekend, it seems unlikely to even make $100 million. Give Ted 2 a weekend of $10.6 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Inside Out 30.0
2 Jurassic World 27.7
3 Terminator: Genisys 26.5
4 Magic Mike XXL 15.1
5 Ted 2 10.6
6 Max 6.4
7 Spy 4.8
8 San Andreas 2.6
9 Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 1.2
10 Dope 1.1

     


 
 

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