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Weekend Forecast for November 22-26, 2017

By Kim Hollis

November 22, 2017

Someone needs to do some filing.

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With the arrival of Thanksgiving weekend comes an exciting, lively film from Pixar. While Thursday will be spent with family, football, turkey and pumpkin pie, the remainder of the weekend gives people plenty of free time. Although some of that time will be spent shopping (not as much as in the past due to heavy online purchasing), parents will still be looking for a way to entertain kids during the long holiday. Why not go to Coco, a rapturously reviewed movie that appeals across demographics?

In early Tuesday previews, Coco earned $2.3 million, right in line with Moana’s preview take last year ($2.6 million) and well ahead of the disastrous Good Dinosaur’s $1.3 million. Obviously, there’s never the same sort of rush for previews for most animated films due to earlier bedtimes and/or family time in the evening, but this number was a strong indicator that Coco will get off to a solid start here in North America.

Thanks to a 95% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and a story cycle that proclaims Coco to be the highest earning film in Mexican history, the Pixar production is riding a fairly strong wave of goodwill to the box office this weekend. Unfortunately, there’s also a bit of bad news by association with regards to the John Lasseter sexual harassment story. The Pixar founder is taking a leave of absence due to “missteps,” which is code for “women were told to stay away from this guy.” Yikes. He’s not the director of the film, though. That honor belongs to Lee Unkrich, who previously helmed Toy Story 3 to ridiculous box office heights.

With all that said, it’s safe to say that we’re looking at a debut somewhere between A Good Dinosaur’s $39 million three-day total and Moana’s $56.6 million. I’m going to go high and predict $55 million for the three-day total, because I think that number will be driven higher by Spanish-speaking audiences. That demographic has proven to be a strong one for niche films that target them, and I would anticipate that sort of loyalty would carry over here as well.




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So, with Coco as the only new wide release, we’re faced with leftovers. And while a couple of them are all right, there are some real turkeys as well. The biggest gobbler of the bunch is Justice League, of course, which debuted with $93.8 million over the weekend (a number that was probably a lie to the high side). There’s not much good news to be had here, unless the studio is okay with its heavily reduced income from overseas revenue. When worldwide calculations are built in, it will look okay, but that $300 million budget is looking like a supersonic mistake at this point. The only saving grace for Justice League is that Thanksgiving weekend should prop it up some. Still, new ads that actually show Superman reek of desperation (previously, the studio was trying to hide the fact that he was in the movie so that it would be a “surprise”). I’d look for a three-day total of $45 million as it begins its quick spiral into infamy.

Our other second-weekend film is the breakout surprise Wonder, which shocked the world with $27.5 million last weekend. I have heard a number of people mention that they’re seeing this movie with groups, and I’m also seeing increased interest on the family front, particularly those with tweeners. It should hold up great over the three-day portion of the weekend and earn about $23 million.

BOP wishes its readers a wonderful Thanksgiving. We are grateful that you continue to support us and appreciate every one of you.


Forecast: Weekend of November 24-26, 2017
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Coco 3,987 New 55.0
2 Justice League 4,051 No Change 45.0
3 Wonder 3,172 +76 23.1
4 Thor: Ragnarok 3,281 -799 12.1
5 Daddy's Home 2 3,518 -57 7.3
6 Murder on the Orient Express 3,152 -202 7.0
7 The Star 2,847 No change 6.0
8 A Bad Moms Christmas 2,306 -642 5.6
9 Lady Bird 791 +533 4.0
10 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 614 +561 2.4

     


 
 

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Friday, November 24, 2017
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