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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 13, 2016

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Deadpool

Hold on to your chimichangas, folks. Deadpool earned $47.5 million on Friday, blowing away even the most aggressive estimates leading up to the weekend. Let’s just say the fourth wall is not the only thing Deadpool is breaking this weekend.

The R-rated superhero movie is now on track to not only break the February opening weekend record, for both the three-day weekend and four-day President’s Day weekend (set just last year by Fifty Shades of Grey after The Passion of the Christ held the record for over 10 years), but it’ll also be the biggest weekend ever for an R-rated film. That record, shockingly, has been held by The Matrix Reloaded since 2003 with $91.7 million.

Deadpool earned $12.7 million from Thursday evening showings (also a record for an R-rated movie), which places the actual Friday take at $34.8 million. This weekend we have a weird conflux of President’s Day giving some people off on Monday, which historically boosts Sunday, plus Valentine’s Day, a traditionally strong box office day. This calendar configuration last happened in 2010 when the appropriately titled Valentine’s Day opened to $56.2 million and had its strongest day on Sunday (duh), for a 3.86 weekend multiplier. That weekend also saw two other $30 million openers that I bet you forgot about: Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief and The Wolfman. While Percy Jackson performed like something aimed at young adults (big increase from Friday to Saturday, slight decline on Sunday), Wolfman’s best day was also Sunday by a slim margin.




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What does all this mean for Deadpool? Um, probably not a whole lot. There’s a fair amount of front-loading here to be sure, though there will also be a slight bump on Sunday. I expect a dip on Saturday followed by better Sunday, which would place Deadpool at $117.1 million for the weekend, and a four-day total of $132 million. Any way you slice it, it’s a stunning performance.

How to Be Single

While Deadpool may have earned the lion’s share of date night dollars this weekend, actual date movie/Valentine’s Day timed release How to Be Single earned $5.2 million on Friday. The female driven rom-com starring Rebel Wilson and Dakota Johnson will be just fine will likely get a significant bump on Sunday. Look for a weekend of $17 million over the weekend with about $20 million over four days.

Zoolander 2

The ill-timed (and very poorly reviewed) sequel Zoolander 2 earned $4.1 million on Friday, which is a big disappointment. Granted, the original from 2001 only managed $45.1 million, but it became a cult classic and was eminently quotable over time. The sequel will not match that box office amount and will have to hope for the same fate via Netflix. A three-day weekend total of $12.8 million and four day total of $15 million seems the best case scenario.

Kung Fu Panda 3

In its third weekend, Kung Fu Panda 3 holds well on Friday, down just 26% to $3.8 million. Attribute most of that hold to the President’s Day weekend and most schools being closed. It will leap over Zoolander for third on the weekend with $15.6 million and around $20 million in four days.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Deadpool 117.1
2 How to Be Single 17.1
3 Kung Fu Panda 3 15.6
4 Zoolander No. 2 12.8
5 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 4.7
6 The Revenant 4.3
7 Hail, Caesar! 4.2
8 The Choice 3.1
9 Ride Along 2 2.7
19 The Boy 1.9

     


 
 

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