One Month Out: Weekends of July 23 and 30, 2010
By BOP Staff
June 29, 2010
David Mumpower: Ramona and Beezus reminds me quite a bit of a 2008 release, Kit Kittredge: An American Girl in that it skews very young and very female and is a well established classic. Nancy Drew also comes to mind for obvious reasons. Assuming the comparisons are valid, we’re talking about a performance in the $17 million to $25 million range, which seems fair to me, a person who is neither very young nor very female. Having said that, it’s tracking well enough that a double digit opening is in the realm of possibility. Were that to happen, I think that Fox should be ecstatic. This is not a target demographic that generally demonstrates that sort of box office pull.
Salt is a different story altogether. As I have mentioned, I believe that this strikes me as a female Bourne Identity and I anticipate a very solid performance. Angelina Jolie is the rare lead actress who has demonstrated the ability to open action films very well. Salt looks like one of the best projects she’s been involved in recently, functioning somewhat as a Mrs. But No Mr. Smith prequel (or sequel?), if you will. The marketing has cleverly dialed down the aspects that remind viewers of The Interpreter but dialed up the ones that remind people that they like loud noises, punched faces and crashed cars. I think this opens in the upper $30s and goes on to earn at least $100 million domestically.
Daron Aldridge: I think that a couple of factors going for Ramona and Beezus are the presence of Selena Gomez and the nostalgia factor for women between the ages of 25 and 40 who grew up on the books. Gomez has a built-in base that Abigail Breslin and Emma Roberts didn't bring to Kit and Nancy, respectively. Those factors I think account for the double digit tracking it is registering. One huge negative is that I haven't seen a single preview, trailer or TV ad for this film but I don't camp out on the Disney Channel and Nickelodeon on my DISH. I think it more than doubles Nancy Drew's numbers all around with $15 million open and a $60 million total gross.
For some reason, Salt immediately brings up memories of Minority Report. I don't know if it's the fact that Tom Cruise was once the star for Salt or the cop/spy on the run from their own employer. Whatever the reason for the comparison, if this delivers, it looks to be a fun, action movie. So, a debut of $35 million could turn into about $130 gross (again if the quality is there and legs result).
Kim Hollis: The movies opening the weekend of July 30th are Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, Charlie St. Cloud and Dinner for Schmucks. What are your thoughts and expectations for these three films?
Brett Beach: Side note - I would love to be the fly on the wall for the parents who have to explain to their kids why Kitty Galore is supposed to be knee-slapping funny.
Seriously, though. 10 years after Cats and Dogs barely eeked out a first place victory from Scary Movie 2, is anybody asking for this? They are basically looking at starting over with their family audience as I don't imagine there are now-17-year-olds who will be lining up for nostalgic kicks. I realize the first one did make nearly five times its opening gross so maybe this will play out similarly but considering that Marmaduke was rejected, I have a feeling and a hope that this will flame out. I say $40 million tops.
Charlie St Cloud is a film whose trailer I keep actively avoiding so I am not sure what it is all about. From what I have heard of the plot, it is a fantasy drama (as opposed to the fantasy comedy of 17 Again) and I don't think Efron will be enough to bring it to that film's respectable numbers. Call it about half that film's total or $30-35 million.
Dinner for Schmucks is one I am severely on the fence about. Will this be the Jay Roach who manned the first Austin Powers and Meet the Parents or the one who helmed Spy who Shagged Me and Meet the Fockers. The trailers I have seen have been underwhelming but I like Carrell and Rudd (and Gary Cole) and so I hope this is funny/silly with heart (but not too much). I think $70-75 million is a safe bet.
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