One Month Out
May 2010 (Part II)
By BOP Staff
April 14, 2010
Sex and the City 2: Arguably the Most Pointless Sequel of All-Time
Kim Hollis: Sex and the City 2, arguably the most pointless sequel of all-time (unless you're an accountant), debuts over Memorial Day weekend. Do you believe they can catch lightning in a bottle a second time? What would be a good result for this film?
Josh Spiegel: The first film opened with just over $57 million, so I'd expect at least that much for this sequel's first weekend. However, unless I've just missed it completely, there's been very little marketing on this film, and with it coming in just over six weeks, I assumed I'd once again have to acknowledge the existence of this series. Frankly, a good result for this film would be it flopping, because we wouldn't have to see a third film. But that's just me dreaming.
Daron Aldridge: I haven't seen any actual advertising for this one either. That being said, the studio is getting significant mileage from the various mentions of the sequel in the "People"-s and "InTouch"-es of the world. My guess is that this one will play more like the Charlie's Angels films than the Twilight films. Instead of increasing box office (probably due to the film being the appendix or tonsils of the franchise...no real purpose but it still exists), I think this will hit just around $50 million on the four-day holiday opening and a $125 million total, which is only a slightly diminished multiplier from the first film.
Max Braden: I think there was an absence-makes-the-heart-grow-fonder element to the first movie's success that won't be repeated with the sequel, but above $40 million for an opening wouldn't surprise me. Do the girls have a Twilight book circle scene? Add ten million.
Jason Lee: I agree with Max. Fans have been sated somewhat by the last film, so I don't think we're going to see as large of an opening-day rush as we did last year. A $40 million + opening would not surprise me, though I think legs will be questionable. Will women still be looking for an excuse for a Girls Night Out? Yes. Will they be interested in seeing another escape by Bradshaw and Co.? Yes. Is demand and anticipation as high? No.
Shalimar Sahota: Maybe it's just because we're mostly all guys, but I would not underestimate the power of sex. Even if there is a lack of marketing, women have it on their radar. With the lead actresses in their 40s (Kim Cattrell is in her mid 50s) it's worth mentioning that there aren't many films that often play for women the same age. Since the release of the first film, I imagine that none of you, off the top of your heads, can think of one that has played to that demographic. I certainly can't. I feel that a $60 million opening weekend is possible, but a Persian Prince opening the same weekend is likely to hinder that and stop it from reaching #1. But it'll behave much like the first film, with heavy front loading and huge drop offs in the subsequent weeks. Hopefully it'll be the last, unless people want to see oldies getting it on.
David Mumpower: The only demographic cross-over between Prince of Persia and Sex and the City 2 is that all of them wore diapers at some point. Otherwise, their target audiences are as diametrically opposed as is humanly possible. Neither film's presence in any way hinders the other.
In terms of the opening weekend of Sex and the City 2, I think some of you are saying "fluke" a bit too easily when considering what the original accomplished. If we assume that most of the people who went to see the first movie enjoyed it (and the metrics indicate that they did), why wouldn't they want to attempt to repeat that action? It's the underlying premise of positive reinforcement.
Kim Hollis: I did hear a lot of fans of the first film say that they thought that movie brought everything to a satisfactory conclusion, so I'm wondering if there might not be a little bit of resentment toward the makers of this film for an obvious attempt at a cash grab. Even so, there's just not much that satisfies the needs of women who want a ladies' night out that a Sex in the City film offers. I don't think it does quite as well as the first film, opening weekend or otherwise, but it doesn't really have to.
Continued:
1
2
3